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Press

Jan 21

World manufacturing remains resilient as 2021 begins

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, January 21, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which shows factory output remains resilient to the second wave. World manufacturing expanded 0.6% MoM in November, in line with last month’s advance estimate, as factories were largely spared from tightened control measures at the consumer level.
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Jan 05

Global retail sales stumbled in final months of 2020

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, January 5, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its ‘Global Retail Sales Tracker’, which shows that the ‘second wave’ is having a noticeable impact on global consumer spending. Worldwide retail sales grew in line with expectations in October, rising 0.3% month-over-month, in line with last month’s preliminary estimate. Retail turnover exceeded its ‘equilibrium’ level (i.e. the consumption level consistent with stable inflation) for the second consecutive month, in part owing to…
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Dec 23

Global industrial activity shows resiliency to ‘second wave’

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, December 23, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its ‘Global Industrial Tracker’, which shows that global industrial production has been surprisingly resilient since the onset of the ‘second wave’. Industrial growth exceeded expectations in October, rising 0.9% month-over-month (MoM), 0.5 points higher than anticipated last month based on preliminary data. Perhaps surprisingly, much of this improvement reflected above-trend growth in Western Europe (+1.6% MoM), which is explained by the fact…
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Dec 18

World manufacturing production nearing a standstill

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, December 18, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera's advance estimates for global manufacturing reconfirm growth is coming to a standstill. While prospects of mass vaccinations have improved the economic outlook for 2021, public health risks remain elevated in much of the Northern hemisphere. Our revised estimate for November reveals growth in factory output of 0.7% MoM (+0.8% YoY), considerably weaker than the 1.2% average pace of growth recorded over the three previous months. Output growth will…
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Dec 01

Global retail sales slowing into Q4

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, December 1, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global retail sales, which point to slowing consumption growth and rising uncertainty amid the second wave. Our revised estimate for October points to a 0.5% gain versus September (-2.8% YoY). Retail sales likely weakened further in November (+0.2% MoM), with high frequency indicators revealing only a 57% chance of growth worldwide. Falling mobility, most notably in Europe, will probably depress goods consumption…
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Nov 24

Global industrial output decelerating in Q4 due to ‘second wave’

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, November 24, 2020 (Press Release) –Numera today released its advance estimates of global industrial production, which support the view that the global economy is decelerating this quarter due to the 'second wave'. Our revised estimate for October reveals worldwide production increased 0.5% MoM (-1.7% YoY), well below the pace of growth recorded between May and September (2% on average). The slowdown will likely continue this month: the most likely outcome is of growth of just…
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Nov 23

Global manufacturing slowing to a halt

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, November 23, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera's advance estimates for world manufacturing point towards a significant slowdown in Q4 factory output amid rising infection rates and declining mobility in advanced economies. Our revised estimate for October points to growth of 0.8% MoM (-0.2% YoY), as the recovery likely halted in countries experiencing a ‘second wave’. Our advance estimate for November reveals a 40% chance of contraction this month, with the most likely outcome being factory output…
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Oct 27

Global Retails Sales Decelerate as COVID Cases Soar

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, October 26, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global retail sales, which suggest a marked slowdown in consumption growth, owing in part to rising infection rates across advanced economies. Our revised estimate for September shows a 1.1% month-over-month (MoM) gain as the most likely outcome, a marked slowdown versus August (see below). Retail sales likely weakened further this month, with our modelling of high frequency indicators pointing to nearly flat…
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Oct 22

Recovery in Global Industrial Production Slows

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, October 21, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global industrial production for October, which suggest that growth has come to a near standstill. Our revised estimate for September reveals worldwide production last month expanded just 0.1% month-over-month (MoM), and was still 3.5% below its year-ago level. We expect this trend to continue this month. Our modelling of high-frequency data points to a gain of only 0.1% MoM as the most…
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Oct 21

Growth in Global Manufacturing has Stalled

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, October 20, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates for global manufacturing in October, which support the view that the recovery has likely stalled. Our revised estimate for September shows growth slowed to +0.3% month-over-month (MoM) after several months of above-trend gains driven by the lifting of lockdown measures. Our advance estimate for October indicates a further slowdown to just +0.1%, and importantly, a 40% probability that final numbers could show an…
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