Commodity chemicals, sometimes referred to as bulk or basic chemicals, are mostly inorganic chemicals used extensively in process industries such as pulp and paper, textiles, and water treatment, as well as metals and mining, and even in the manufacture of everyday consumer goods such as soaps and detergents. This segment also includes standard, large volume industrial gases for processing and manufacturing.
The prices of these chemicals are highly influenced by global macro forces impacting goods demand and the dollar, and are particularly sensitive to energy shocks.
Commodity chemicals are part of Numera Macro’s broader commodity coverage. Our chemicals coverage is aimed mainly at helping clients forecast input costs and to manage downside risks. What distinguishes our offering is a probabilistic assessment of future price movements, and a rigorous quantitative take of the various economic and market-specific factors driving price fluctuations. Our chemicals models are fully linked to our global macro and energy models and are informed by the extensive analysis other teams at Numera do on key end-use markets.
Our approach, using probability forecasting, is critical for cost-risk management, as macro and energy shocks often cause prices to deviate sharply from market expectations. With our tools, users can monitor the likelihood of various price scenarios, assess sensitivity to various shocks, and manage risks to their operations.
As a subscriber, you receive 5-year probability forecasts of prices (in index form updated at a quarterly frequency) for 8 major commodity chemicals including caustic soda, sulphuric acid and industrial oxygen.
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