Market Sector

Oil and Gas

Even with the rapid expansion of renewables, oil and natural gas, along with refined products like gasoline, diesel, kerosene and LPG, still make up over half of the global energy mix. Oil and gas are also the feedstock for the production of plastic polymers, industrial and specialty chemicals, and fertilizers.

Around 40% of cyclical variations in oil and gas prices reflect global macro forces, like the dollar or the commodity cycle. At the same time, supply-side and speculative shocks ripple through the economy, affecting purchasing power, investment decisions, and external competitiveness. This ‘feedback’ loop makes the sector unique, and of critical importance to corporate and investment strategy.


Oil and gas are a key part of Numera Macro’s commodity coverage. What distinguishes our offering in this crowded space is a probabilistic assessment of future price movements, and a rigorous quantitative take of the various economic and market-specific factors driving price fluctuations.

Our probabilistic approach is of critical importance to oil and gas, as large shocks often cause prices to deviate sharply from market expectations. With our tools, users can monitor the likelihood of various price scenarios, assess sensitivity to energy shocks, and manage risks to their operations.

As a subscriber to our oil and gas coverage, you receive 5-year probability forecasts (updated at a monthly frequency) for global crude oil benchmarks, US and European natural gas spot prices, and refined petroleum products. In addition, you will receive our flagship Commodity Market Outlook, discussing our latest views on the crude oil markets, and implications for ‘petro’ assets.

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Whether you're looking for an individual report or require extensive market research and quantitative analysis, we offer you the flexibility to become a client under your terms.

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