Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Developed market progress continues

June 18, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 18, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination campaigns accelerated further this past week, reducing the projected timeline towards 70%+ immunity by 5% to 4.7 months. Once again, much of this progress stemmed from developed markets, which are now inoculating a record 8M people per day. Developed markets have administered an initial dose to 46% of their populations, with consistent improvements in the initial take-up rate in most major economies excluding the United States.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: An impressive 6-month run

June 11, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 11, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

This week marked the 6-month anniversary since the official start of COVID vaccination campaigns. During this period, the world has administered a staggering 2.2 billion doses, with near-consistent improvements in the global pace of inoculation. At the current rate, the world should surpass the 70% immunity threshold in less than 5 months, versus a 14-month timeline merely two months ago.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: A break-through month

June 4, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 4, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Since early May, improvements in vaccine distribution have significantly cut back projected times towards herd immunity. In only four weeks, daily inoculation rates have doubled to 0.6% of the global population, reducing the timeline towards 70%+ immunity by 5M.

Much of this progress stems from emerging markets, led by an extremely rapid rollout in China. In developed markets, accelerating vaccinations in Europe and Canada offset a weakening take-up rate in the US.

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Temporary slowdown in industrial activity

June 3, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, June 3, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth slowing into the second quarter.

After rising roughly 1% per month in Q1/21, global production rose an estimated 0.3% month-over-month in April – in line with its long-term trend. Looked at by region, most of the growth is now stemming from advanced economies, where improved business and consumer sentiment are boosting the production of investment and consumer goods.

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Global manufacturing growth continued in Q2

May 31, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 31, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals manufacturing output continued to expand into the second quarter.  Read More

Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Six months to normality

May 28, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 28, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination rates accelerated further this past week, cutting back the estimated time towards 70%+ immunity by 11% to six months. Despite falling US vaccinations, developed markets as a whole maintained a steady pace of inoculations, owing to strong demand for initial doses in Europe and Canada.

In EMs, a rapid vaccine rollout in China allowed EMs to reduce the projected time towards 70% immunity by four weeks to 7 months. The EM aggregate remains weighed down by India, where production backlogs have resulted in a near 50% decline in the daily pace of vaccinations over the past month.

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Retail spending recovered from second wave

May 26, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 26, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that global retail spending recovered from its second wave lull.

Global retail spending likely grew 1.2% MoM in April (+30% YoY), fueled by rising mobility and improving consumer confidence across developed markets (DMs). DM retail sales are now 4.5% higher than their pre-crisis level.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Developed market health risks easing

May 21, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 21, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination campaigns continue to accelerate, with daily vaccinations increasing by 1.4M people per day over this past week to 0.45% of the world population. As a result, the estimated time towards 70%+ immunity is down 10% during this period to 7.3 months (end of December).

In developed markets (DMs), most of the improvement stems from the Eurozone and Canada, which over the past two weeks have vaccinated a staggering 1% of their population per day. Public health risks have eased considerably, with daily per capita case counts across DMs down 50% over the past month and 75% YTD.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: The Eurozone awakens

May 14, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 14, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination rates picked up last week after stalling in early May, reducing the projected time towards ‘herd’ (70%+) immunity by 9.1% to less than 9 months. In developed markets, most of the improvement stemmed from the Eurozone. Improvements in production and distribution have allowed EZ countries to double daily inoculations over the past month to 1% of the population.

Emerging markets also gained considerable ground, led a rapidly expanding vaccine coverage in China. At the current pace, public health authorities are on track to achieving their stated objective of inoculating 40% of the population by the end of June.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Hesitancy pushes back immunity timeline

May 7, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 7, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Worldwide vaccination rates stalled over the past week, increasing the number of months towards 70%+ immunity by 4.3% to 11 months. In developed markets, the slowdown occurred primarily in countries with high vaccine coverage, now starting to experience lower demand from the unvaccinated population.

In the US, daily vaccination rates are down 35% since mid-April, pushing back the projected timeline to 70%+ immunity by one month to mid-July. The slowdown coincides with the temporary suspension of the J&J single-dose vaccine. In other developed markets with high vaccine coverage, like Britain or Israel, the slowdown this week reflects primarily a low take-up rate among the unvaccinated population.

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