Global industrial output decelerating in Q4 due to ‘second wave’

November 24, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, November 24, 2020 (Press Release) –Numera today released its advance estimates of global industrial production, which support the view that the global economy is decelerating this quarter due to the ‘second wave’.

Our revised estimate for October reveals worldwide production increased 0.5% MoM (-1.7% YoY), well below the pace of growth recorded between May and September (2% on average). The slowdown will likely continue this month: the most likely outcome is of growth of just 0.1% MoM, with a 40% probability of decline.

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Global manufacturing slowing to a halt

November 23, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, November 23, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera’s advance estimates for world manufacturing point towards a significant slowdown in Q4 factory output amid rising infection rates and declining mobility in advanced economies. Our revised estimate for October points to growth of 0.8% MoM (-0.2% YoY), as the recovery likely halted in countries experiencing a ‘second wave’. Our advance estimate for November reveals a 40% chance of contraction this month, with the most likely outcome being factory output slowing to a standstill. This rapid deceleration again reflects weakening activity among countries re-imposing lockdown rules.

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Global Retails Sales Decelerate as COVID Cases Soar

October 27, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, October 26, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global retail sales, which suggest a marked slowdown in consumption growth, owing in part to rising infection rates across advanced economies.

Our revised estimate for September shows a 1.1% month-over-month (MoM) gain as the most likely outcome, a marked slowdown versus August (see below). Retail sales likely weakened further this month, with our modelling of high frequency indicators pointing to nearly flat growth in October (+0.2% MoM). Given the increase in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, however, the full extent of the slowdown remains uncertain and the tail risk is significant as seen in the graph below.

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Recovery in Global Industrial Production Slows

October 22, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, October 21, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global industrial production for October, which suggest that growth has come to a near standstill. Our revised estimate for September reveals worldwide production last month expanded just 0.1% month-over-month (MoM), and was still 3.5% below its year-ago level. We expect this trend to continue this month. Our modelling of high-frequency data points to a gain of only 0.1% MoM as the most likely outcome for October, and roughly a 40% chance of contraction.
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Growth in Global Manufacturing has Stalled

October 21, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, October 20, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates for global manufacturing in October, which support the view that the recovery has likely stalled. Our revised estimate for September shows growth slowed to +0.3% month-over-month (MoM) after several months of above-trend gains driven by the lifting of lockdown measures. Our advance estimate for October indicates a further slowdown to just +0.1%, and importantly, a 40% probability that final numbers could show an outright decline.
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