Global retail sales bounce back in early 2021

March 3, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, March 3, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that retail spending picked up in early 2021 after two months of decline.

Global retail turnover fell 0.4% in December, significantly better than the 1% contraction we had anticipated in last month’s Retail Tracker. This outperformance primarily reflected a stronger-than-expected recovery in Western Europe as authorities eased control measures.

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Vaccine optimism boosting global production

February 26, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, February 26, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to weakening but positive output growth early in 2021. However, we expect industrial activity to accelerate during the summer months as higher vaccination rates lift demand for consumer goods.

Global industrial production grew 1.2% month-over-month in December. The strong performance primarily reflected strong growth in China and the United States. Production in China continues to benefit from strong credit growth and public investment, whereas operating conditions in the US have strengthened on the back of strong business and residential investment.

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World manufacturing continues to expand in early 2021

February 25, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, February 25, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals factory output continues to expand well above trend despite very low away-from-home traffic.

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Second wave caused retail sales to contract in late 2020

February 1, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, February 1, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which confirms that the ‘second wave’ caused a contraction in global goods consumption in late 2020.

Worldwide retail sales fell 1.7% month-over-month in November, a steeper drop than the 0.7% decline we had anticipated in last month’s report. The underperformance primarily stemmed from a 5.5% decline in real retail sales in Western Europe, where partial lockdowns (mainly at the consumer level) resulted in a near 20-point drop in away-from-home traffic during this period.

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Vaccine optimism propped up global production in late 2020

January 26, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, January 26, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which reveals that global production accelerated in late 2020 even as mobility weakened. World industrial output increased 0.6% month-over-month (MoM) in November, even as growth weakened in advanced economies in response to tighter control measures.

Our revised estimate for December points to a strong 1.3% gain versus November, buoyed by sturdy output growth in China and the United States. Industrial activity in the US grew 1.6%, a 5-month high, as vaccine optimism caused a surge in orders for industrial equipment and intermediate inputs in anticipation of stronger final demand. By the end of 2020, global industrial production was 2.8% below its pre-crisis path, up from -14% last April.

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World manufacturing remains resilient as 2021 begins

January 21, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, January 21, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which shows factory output remains resilient to the second wave. World manufacturing expanded 0.6% MoM in November, in line with last month’s advance estimate, as factories were largely spared from tightened control measures at the consumer level.

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Global retail sales stumbled in final months of 2020

January 5, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, January 5, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its ‘Global Retail Sales Tracker’, which shows that the ‘second wave’ is having a noticeable impact on global consumer spending.

Worldwide retail sales grew in line with expectations in October, rising 0.3% month-over-month, in line with last month’s preliminary estimate. Retail turnover exceeded its ‘equilibrium’ level (i.e. the consumption level consistent with stable inflation) for the second consecutive month, in part owing to substitution from unavailable services towards goods.

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Global industrial activity shows resiliency to ‘second wave’

December 23, 2020 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, December 23, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its ‘Global Industrial Tracker’, which shows that global industrial production has been surprisingly resilient since the onset of the ‘second wave’.

Industrial growth exceeded expectations in October, rising 0.9% month-over-month (MoM), 0.5 points higher than anticipated last month based on preliminary data. Perhaps surprisingly, much of this improvement reflected above-trend growth in Western Europe (+1.6% MoM), which is explained by the fact that public health authorities allowed factories to remain operational, while imposing restrictions at the consumer level.

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World manufacturing production nearing a standstill

December 18, 2020 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, December 18, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera’s advance estimates for global manufacturing reconfirm growth is coming to a standstill. While prospects of mass vaccinations have improved the economic outlook for 2021, public health risks remain elevated in much of the Northern hemisphere. Our revised estimate for November reveals growth in factory output of 0.7% MoM (+0.8% YoY), considerably weaker than the 1.2% average pace of growth recorded over the three previous months. Output growth will likely weaken further in December as most developed economies maintain lockdown measures.

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Global retail sales slowing into Q4

December 1, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, December 1, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global retail sales, which point to slowing consumption growth and rising uncertainty amid the second wave.

Our revised estimate for October points to a 0.5% gain versus September (-2.8% YoY). Retail sales likely weakened further in November (+0.2% MoM), with high frequency indicators revealing only a 57% chance of growth worldwide. Falling mobility, most notably in Europe, will probably depress goods consumption during the winter months, although substitution away from contact services should limit the extent of the decline.

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