Introducing Numera Analytics’s herd immunity tracker

April 16, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, April 16, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the first edition of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Joaquin Kritz Lara, Numera’s head of Macro Research, commented on this new weekly report: “Since most remaining economic losses worldwide are concentrated in contact services, tracking progress towards immunity is of crucial importance in predicting the speed and scope of recovery. Our goal with this weekly update is to provide the ‘what if’ of ongoing vaccination campaigns”.

Daily global vaccinations accelerated further last week, cutting the time towards herd immunity by around 6%. At current vaccination rates, the world is one year away from reaching the 70% immunity threshold. Progress is much greater in developed markets, where rapid rollouts since March have dramatically reduced the number of months until normality. Our latest estimates suggest that developed markets as a whole could reach herd immunity in 4.3 months.

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Global retail sales continued to weaken in Q1

April 8, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, April 8, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that global retail spending continued to weaken in Q1 after peaking last October.

Real retail sales edged up 0.8% in January, trailing expectations. The underperformance primarily stemmed from emerging markets, where retail traffic fell 7% in January amid a surge in COVID cases.

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Are higher yields here to stay?

April 7, 2021 | Articles

The March 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor explores the factors behind the surge in long-term Treasury yields and its implications for US investment strategy. We find that the increase primarily reflects stronger growth prospects, which improves the relative appeal of US equity holdings.

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Weak global industrial production in early 2021

March 31, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, March 31, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to weakening production in early 2021.

Our revised estimate for February reveals a 1% drop versus January, mainly due to reduced production amid severe winter storms in the US South. The February weather shock pushes world industrial activity 1.8% below its pre-COVID path.

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What is behind China’s equity sell-off

March 30, 2021 | Articles

In the March 2021 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor, we discuss China’s economic outlook and the factors behind the ongoing CN equity sell-off. We find that the correction realigns stocks with macro fundamentals, which in a context of strong global growth limits tail risk on new investments. Read More

Temporary pullback in world manufacturing output

March 29, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, March 29, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals factory output experienced a pullback in early 2021, which we expect to be temporary.

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Why the weakness in gold prices

March 16, 2021 | Articles

The March 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on gold, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.

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Will the US economy overheat?

March 4, 2021 | Articles

The February 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor explores the possibility of ‘overheating’. While GDP should normalize by Q4/21, it will take longer for the job market to recover, mitigating inflationary pressures. The macro outlook favours stocks over bonds, especially ‘reopening’ sectors.

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Global retail sales bounce back in early 2021

March 3, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, March 3, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that retail spending picked up in early 2021 after two months of decline.

Global retail turnover fell 0.4% in December, significantly better than the 1% contraction we had anticipated in last month’s Retail Tracker. This outperformance primarily reflected a stronger-than-expected recovery in Western Europe as authorities eased control measures.

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Vaccine optimism boosting global production

February 26, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, February 26, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to weakening but positive output growth early in 2021. However, we expect industrial activity to accelerate during the summer months as higher vaccination rates lift demand for consumer goods.

Global industrial production grew 1.2% month-over-month in December. The strong performance primarily reflected strong growth in China and the United States. Production in China continues to benefit from strong credit growth and public investment, whereas operating conditions in the US have strengthened on the back of strong business and residential investment.

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