What really drives crude oil prices?

November 21, 2018 | Articles

Like any global commodity, oil price changes are a consequence of shifting supply and demand conditions. Sudden movements – like November’s steep declines – receive ample media coverage, with industry observers providing controversial explanations for their underlying cause (consider President Trump’s recent tweet on oil prices, OPEC and the role of supply).
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Webinar – Where do pulp markets go from here?

November 5, 2018 | Events

Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar on key issues regarding the global pulp market, which has seen an extraordinary run-up in prices the last two years due to accelerated global economic growth and significant unscheduled mill downtime, along with an environmental clampdown in China on polluting capacity and recovered paper imports.

To participate in this webinar taking place on Tuesday, November 13, 2018, 11:00 AM EST, please register here.

 

Webinar – Recovered Paper’s Changing Dynamics

June 11, 2018 | Events

Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar regarding key issues in the volatile recovered-fiber market and its impact on market pulp and corrugated packaging.

To participate in this webinar taking place on June 20, 2018, 10:00 AM EDT, please register here.

 

Webinar – What’s Next for Corrugated Packaging

April 3, 2018 | Events

Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar regarding key issues facing the corrugated packaging market, with a focus on North America and Europe. Paul Leclair, Vice President and Chief Economist at Numera Analytics, will discuss demand for corrugated boxes, which has been growing at a healthy clip in North America and Europe. He will focus on how long it can last by zeroing in on the market segments that are driving the growth and macro headwinds that could derail the expansion.

To participate in this webinar taking place on April 17, 201,8 11:00 AM EDT, please register here.

 

Global retail sales rise 4.6% in 2017 as cyclical deviations widen; headline inflation at 3.8% in Q4

February 28, 2018 | Articles

Global retail spending slowed down somewhat in December, falling 0.1% from its November level. As a result, retail volumes closed the year up 4.6% from 2016, exceeding the rate of growth implied by fundamentals (+4.4%). Transitory income shocks have now pushed private consumption 0.5% above its stable growth path, adding to inflationary pressures. Global CPI inflation accelerated in the fourth quarter, rising 3.8% SAAR. Considering PPI inflation is currently well above its steady-state level (4.1% versus 1.7%), we expect consumer prices – and in particular retail prices – to accelerate in 2018, increasing the likelihood of monetary tightening.

To view the complete analysis, contact us and enroll in a free 3-month trial of Numera’s Global Retail Sales Report.

Manufacturing grew 4% in 2017, exceeding potential; strong inflationary pressures, PPI inflation up 4.1%

February 28, 2018 | Articles

Global manufacturing surged last December, rising 7.4% SAAR (+4.9%y-o-y) to close the year up 4.0%. The gap between actual and potential output widened by some 20 basis points to 1.5%, the largest cyclical deviation since mid-2008. As expected, PPI inflation weakened somewhat in December (+0.3%) held back by sluggish growth in raw material prices. Global producer prices rose 4.1% in 2017, fully recovering the losses from the two previous years. Given the delayed pass-through from producer to consumer prices, tight operating conditions should drive up CPI inflation in 2018 even if the cyclical momentum dissipates.

Want to read more? Contact us to receive a free 3-month trial and view the full Global Manufacturing report.

Industrial activity surges to strongest result since the Great Recession

February 28, 2018 | Articles

Global industrial production accelerated further in December, this time rising at an annualized rate of 7.7% (+4.1%year-over-year). Production was up 3.5% for the year as a whole, a significant improvement from the 1.8% increase recorded in 2016. Underlying the headline figure was a 4.0% increase in manufacturing activity, facilitated by a noticeable pick-up in private sector investment. In OECD countries, demand for fixed capital (structures, equipment) grew 3.5% last year, compared to 1.6% in2016. Unsurprisingly, output growth stemmed primarily from durable goods industries.

Want to read more? Contact us to receive a free 3-month trial and view the full Industrial Production report.

Strong cyclical conditions drive up global inflation in November; retail spending up 4.5% year-to-date

February 1, 2018 | Articles

Global retail spending rose markedly in November, exceeding 5% growth for the first time in the post-crisis period. Strong growth was both a reflection of permanent and transitory factors. About two-thirds of the overall increase reflected strong equilibrium consumption (+4.7% year-on-year). Positive demand shocks accounted for the remaining third, with the consumption gap rising three basis points to 0.6%. Rapid growth in demand, alongside rising inflation expectations, supported global CPI inflation, up 5.1% SAAR in November.

To view the complete analysis, contact us and enroll in a free 3-month trial of Numera’s Global Retail Sales Report.

Global industrial production is up 3.5% in November after 11 months; gap between factory and mining output widens

January 25, 2018 | Articles

Industrial activity continued to grow steadily in November, this time rising 4.9% annualized (3.5% year-on-year). The November result reflected strong demand for manufactured goods (+7.7% SAAR), which compensated for sluggish mining production in emerging markets. The divergence between factory and mining output is especially prevalent in Latin America, where extractive industries have underperformed the overall industrial sector for 19 consecutive months.

Want to read more? Contact us to receive a free 3-month trial and view the full Industrial Production report.

PPI inflation remained elevated in November as the manufacturing output gap hits a 68-month high

January 25, 2018 | Articles

Global manufacturing expanded 4.4% year-over-year in November, and at 3.9% after 11 months is on track to record its strongest year of growth since 2011. As was the case in previous months, steady growth in productive capacity (+3.2%) was amplified by increasingly favourable cyclical conditions. Production volumes have now outpaced potential output for 13 months, the longest period of above-trend growth in the post-recession period.  At 1.3% in November, the manufacturing output gap was at its highest level since March 2012. Tight operating conditions continued to exert upward pressure on producer prices, which rose 0.5% for the fourth consecutive month.

Want to read more? Contact us to receive a free 3-month trial and view the full Global Manufacturing report.