Markets underpricing EZ inflation risk

September 9, 2021 | Articles

The September 2021 edition of Numera Analytics’ Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation, and exchange rates. 

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Macro implications of infrastructure bill

September 2, 2021 | Articles

The August 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor investigates the economic and financial market implications of the bi-partisan Infrastructure and Jobs Act (IIJA). We find that the IIJA could lift US GDP by around 0.5%, and improve the relative appeal of equities versus fixed income holdings.

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Retail spending weakened in mid-2021

September 1, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, September 1, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which confirms global goods consumption weakened in mid-2021.

The slowdown primarily reflects a normalization of expenditure patterns in the United States, where households are allocating a greater portion of their disposable income to contact services. This ‘substitution’ effect is still not visible in EMs, where retail spending continued to recover on the back of stronger away-from-home traffic.

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Production recovering amid Delta concerns

August 26, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, August 26, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which shows global production continues to recover despite rising concerns about the Delta wave of COVID infections.

Worldwide industrial output rose 0.9% month-over-month in June after a tightening of restrictions in Asia caused global output losses of 0.3% the previous month. The June gain pushed industrial production to just 0.6% below its pre-pandemic path. This compares to a manufacturing output gap of 1.5%. The difference reflects subdued mining activity, with global crude oil production only starting to strengthen in late June.

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Manufacturing resilient to Delta

August 25, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, August 25, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals manufacturing output remains resilient to the Delta wave of infections.

After contracting 0.8% month-over-month in May, global factory output rebounded in June, rising 1.1%. Inflationary pressures eased somewhat in June, but remain elevated by historical standards. Global PPI inflation came in at 11% annualized, versus 20%+ over the 3 previous months.

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Will Delta derail the economy?

August 12, 2021 | Articles

The August 2021 edition of Numera Analytics’ Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation and exchange rates.

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Markets too bearish on oil

August 10, 2021 | Articles

The August 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on crude oil, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: EZ continues to lead the way

August 6, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, August 6, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Apart from the stalled vaccination campaign in the US, developed markets are still making headway towards ‘herd’ immunity. While the projected time for the US remains above 4.5 months, other DMs have cut back the projected timeline by 10% this past week to 1.2 months. Elsewhere, fears over the Delta variant are causing vaccination campaigns to accelerate, with significant progress recorded in most major emerging economies.

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Spending on goods weakens

August 3, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, August 3, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that global retail spending weakened from its April peak.

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Global industrial output slowing into H2

August 2, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, August 2, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth slowing into the second half.

Industrial production contracted 0.7% in May, primarily owing to substitution away from goods and towards contact services. In addition, demand for capital goods has started to weaken given an already very high investment share of GDP. High-frequency data points to a partial recovery in June and July, partly on the back of a ~6% increase in crude oil production in OPEC+ countries.

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