Webinar – Numera’s Macro Outlook 2020

October 4, 2019 | Events

Our Industrial sector diffusion index has been flashing major decoupling with the broad economy for some time now. Although, the most likely outcome for the US is still positive growth, risks have markedly increased over the last quarter. Recession risk has jumped 24 points to 42% for 2020, the highest level since 2008.

Join Joaquin Kritz Lara, Numera Analytics’ Head of Macro Research, on Wednesday, October 9th at 11:00 am EDT, as he discusses how macro risks influence asset returns, and how to adjust your portfolio moving into 2020. Click here to register to our webinar.

Trade tensions between the United States and China

The Resurgence of Trade Tensions Between the United States and China

May 29, 2019 | Articles

The resurgence of trade tensions between the United States and China has far-reaching implications for the world economy. One major topic of debate is the impact of tariffs on US inflation, and whether the Trade War could alter the Fed’s chosen course of action. In this short research note, we explore the impact of the new round of tariffs on US PCE and PPI inflation. This is the second of a four-part focus on the US, China and Trade war implications.

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Webinar – Corrugated Packaging Trends in the U.S. and Europe

March 14, 2019 | Events

Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar regarding key issues facing corrugated packaging markets, with a focus on North America and Europe. Numera’s David Vallières along with VRP’s Chip Dillon and Bloomberg’s Joshua Zaret will discuss the supply/demand and pricing outlook in North America, new/projected capacity additions, secular demand sources, as well as China’s wastepaper import restrictions and what they mean for US containerboard producers.

To participate in this webinar taking place on Thursday, April 4th, 2019, 10:00 AM EDT, please register here.

 

What really drives crude oil prices?

November 21, 2018 | Articles

Like any global commodity, oil price changes are a consequence of shifting supply and demand conditions. Sudden movements – like November’s steep declines – receive ample media coverage, with industry observers providing controversial explanations for their underlying cause (consider President Trump’s recent tweet on oil prices, OPEC and the role of supply).
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Webinar – Where do pulp markets go from here?

November 5, 2018 | Events

Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar on key issues regarding the global pulp market, which has seen an extraordinary run-up in prices the last two years due to accelerated global economic growth and significant unscheduled mill downtime, along with an environmental clampdown in China on polluting capacity and recovered paper imports.

To participate in this webinar taking place on Tuesday, November 13, 2018, 11:00 AM EST, please register here.

 

Webinar – Recovered Paper’s Changing Dynamics

June 11, 2018 | Events

Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar regarding key issues in the volatile recovered-fiber market and its impact on market pulp and corrugated packaging.

To participate in this webinar taking place on June 20, 2018, 10:00 AM EDT, please register here.

 

Webinar – What’s Next for Corrugated Packaging

April 3, 2018 | Events

Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar regarding key issues facing the corrugated packaging market, with a focus on North America and Europe. Paul Leclair, Vice President and Chief Economist at Numera Analytics, will discuss demand for corrugated boxes, which has been growing at a healthy clip in North America and Europe. He will focus on how long it can last by zeroing in on the market segments that are driving the growth and macro headwinds that could derail the expansion.

To participate in this webinar taking place on April 17, 201,8 11:00 AM EDT, please register here.

 

Global retail sales rise 4.6% in 2017 as cyclical deviations widen; headline inflation at 3.8% in Q4

February 28, 2018 | Articles

Global retail spending slowed down somewhat in December, falling 0.1% from its November level. As a result, retail volumes closed the year up 4.6% from 2016, exceeding the rate of growth implied by fundamentals (+4.4%). Transitory income shocks have now pushed private consumption 0.5% above its stable growth path, adding to inflationary pressures. Global CPI inflation accelerated in the fourth quarter, rising 3.8% SAAR. Considering PPI inflation is currently well above its steady-state level (4.1% versus 1.7%), we expect consumer prices – and in particular retail prices – to accelerate in 2018, increasing the likelihood of monetary tightening.

To view the complete analysis, contact us and enroll in a free 3-month trial of Numera’s Global Retail Sales Report.

Manufacturing grew 4% in 2017, exceeding potential; strong inflationary pressures, PPI inflation up 4.1%

February 28, 2018 | Articles

Global manufacturing surged last December, rising 7.4% SAAR (+4.9%y-o-y) to close the year up 4.0%. The gap between actual and potential output widened by some 20 basis points to 1.5%, the largest cyclical deviation since mid-2008. As expected, PPI inflation weakened somewhat in December (+0.3%) held back by sluggish growth in raw material prices. Global producer prices rose 4.1% in 2017, fully recovering the losses from the two previous years. Given the delayed pass-through from producer to consumer prices, tight operating conditions should drive up CPI inflation in 2018 even if the cyclical momentum dissipates.

Want to read more? Contact us to receive a free 3-month trial and view the full Global Manufacturing report.