Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Developed market progress continues

June 18, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 18, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination campaigns accelerated further this past week, reducing the projected timeline towards 70%+ immunity by 5% to 4.7 months. Once again, much of this progress stemmed from developed markets, which are now inoculating a record 8M people per day. Developed markets have administered an initial dose to 46% of their populations, with consistent improvements in the initial take-up rate in most major economies excluding the United States.

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Is high global inflation here to stay?

June 15, 2021 | Articles

The June 2021 edition of Numera Analytics’ Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation, and exchange rates. 

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: An impressive 6-month run

June 11, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 11, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

This week marked the 6-month anniversary since the official start of COVID vaccination campaigns. During this period, the world has administered a staggering 2.2 billion doses, with near-consistent improvements in the global pace of inoculation. At the current rate, the world should surpass the 70% immunity threshold in less than 5 months, versus a 14-month timeline merely two months ago.

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Gold as an inflation hedge

June 10, 2021 | Articles

The June 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on gold, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets. Read More

Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: A break-through month

June 4, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 4, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Since early May, improvements in vaccine distribution have significantly cut back projected times towards herd immunity. In only four weeks, daily inoculation rates have doubled to 0.6% of the global population, reducing the timeline towards 70%+ immunity by 5M.

Much of this progress stems from emerging markets, led by an extremely rapid rollout in China. In developed markets, accelerating vaccinations in Europe and Canada offset a weakening take-up rate in the US.

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Hedging inflation risk

June 3, 2021 | Articles

The May 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor explores the factors behind high US inflation, and discusses various strategies to minimize inflationary risk. While an inflationary spiral remains unlikely, we expect higher trend inflation than in the past 5Y, weakening the relative appeal of 60/40 portfolios.

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Temporary slowdown in industrial activity

June 3, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 3, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth slowing into the second quarter.

After rising roughly 1% per month in Q1/21, global production rose an estimated 0.3% month-over-month in April – in line with its long-term trend. Looked at by region, most of the growth is now stemming from advanced economies, where improved business and consumer sentiment are boosting the production of investment and consumer goods.

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Global manufacturing growth continued in Q2

May 31, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 31, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals manufacturing output continued to expand into the second quarter.  Read More

Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Six months to normality

May 28, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 28, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination rates accelerated further this past week, cutting back the estimated time towards 70%+ immunity by 11% to six months. Despite falling US vaccinations, developed markets as a whole maintained a steady pace of inoculations, owing to strong demand for initial doses in Europe and Canada.

In EMs, a rapid vaccine rollout in China allowed EMs to reduce the projected time towards 70% immunity by four weeks to 7 months. The EM aggregate remains weighed down by India, where production backlogs have resulted in a near 50% decline in the daily pace of vaccinations over the past month.

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Low mobility weighing on returns

May 27, 2021 | Articles

In the May 2021 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor, we investigate the EM equity implications of vaccine inequality. Although global ‘reflation’ benefits EM assets, stark differences in public health risks versus DMs weakens the relative appeal of EM stocks versus past reflationary episodes.

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