The May 2022 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on industrial metals, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook for copper and iron ore for 2022 and 2023. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
This month’s edition focuses on industrial metals, the commodity sector most exposed to China’s Zero-COVID policy. We present our latest views for copper and iron ore, while also covering broad commodity dynamics, exploring the usefulness of commodity investments as a diversifier of equity risk over the coming year.
Here are the highlights of this month’s edition:
Overall: We expect commodity returns to turn negative in Q2 in response to a strong dollar and China’s Zero-COVID policy. Prices should stabilize at longer horizons, benefiting from increased fiscal stimulus by Beijing and elevated inflation risks (supporting investor demand for raw materials).
Industrial metals: Both copper and iron ore prices performed just as we anticipated in our latest Metals Focus in February. We expect copper to weaken markedly in coming quarters, in response to Zero-COVID and stronger mine supply. Iron ore should recover faster, buoyed by accelerating infrastructure investment.
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