Embracing

Uncertainty

Macroeconomic analysis is imperfect. Even with well-specified models, future shocks will necessarily cause projections to deviate from their outcome. Failure to account for different sources of uncertainty – and their pattern of transmission – can result in poor decision-making.

At Numera Analytics, our goal is to help clients understand sources of growth, quantify downside risks, and anticipate shifts in the global economy. Unlike conventional economists and strategists, we rely on sophisticated probability forecasting techniques to evaluate less likely, yet economically meaningful, scenarios. The approach is instrumental for investment strategy, as it helps identify the many risks surrounding future outcomes.

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Our Methodology

Our research spectrum illustrates Numera's approach to macroeconomic analysis. While primarily empirical, our tried and tested models incorporate theoretical and qualitative insights should these prove useful in prediction. The procedure ensures transparency and flexibility, with model choice differing widely across concepts depending on their forecasting performance.

Features of Service

  • Global Macro Monitor
    Monthly update on global macro conditions, impact on asset prices and risks to the outlook.
  • US Macro Monitor
    Monthly update on US macro conditions, impact on asset prices and risks to the outlook.
  • Global Industry Monitor
    Monthly perspective on global industrial activity and investment implications.

Sample Research

Numera’s global macro service combines modern macro theory with advanced quantitative techniques to help global investors and firms evaluate economic and financial stress while minimizing errors in prediction.

See the example below for further details on the Numera approach.

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Whether you're looking for an individual report or require extensive market research and quantitative analysis, we offer you the flexibility to become a client under your terms.

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