Embracing

Uncertainty

Macroeconomic analysis is imperfect. Even with well-specified models, future shocks will necessarily cause projections to deviate from their outcome. Failure to account for different sources of uncertainty – and their pattern of transmission – can result in poor decision-making.

At Numera Analytics, our goal is to help clients understand sources of growth, quantify downside risks, and anticipate shifts in the global economy. Unlike conventional economists and strategists, we rely on sophisticated probability forecasting techniques to evaluate less likely, yet economically meaningful, scenarios. The approach is instrumental for investment strategy, as it helps identify the many risks surrounding future outcomes.

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Our Methodology

Our research spectrum illustrates Numera's approach to macroeconomic analysis. While primarily empirical, our tried and tested models incorporate theoretical and qualitative insights should these prove useful in prediction. The procedure ensures transparency and flexibility, with model choice differing widely across concepts depending on their forecasting performance.

Features of Service

  • Global Macro Monitor
    Monthly report: In-depth coverage of global macro conditions, impact on asset prices and risks to the outlook.
    Monthly Chart pack: Chart pack with updated global equity and FICC views and probability forecasts.
  • US Macro Monitor
    Monthly report: In-depth coverage of US macro conditions, impact on US asset prices and risks to the outlook.
    Monthly Chart pack: Chart pack with updated US equity and fixed income views and probability forecasts.
  • Commodity Market Outlook
    Monthly update on our latest commodity views and a ‘deep dive’ on the factors driving recent price fluctuations. Four (4) reports per year on oil, gold, and industrial metals.

 

  • Global Economic Outlook
    Monthly report showcasing two-year point and probability forecasts for global growth and inflation. Country-specific coverage for key metrics such as recession risk or above-trend growth probabilities.
  • US Economic Outlook
    Monthly report showcasing two-year point and probability forecasts for US growth, inflation and Fed policy. Sector-specific coverage including labour, manufacturing and housing market projections.
  • Thematic Research Reports
    Regular in-depth research exploring important global economic and financial themes.
  • Weekly Reports
    Concise and timely commentaries on significant market events.
  • Webinars or presentations
    Webinars, presentations and custom research.*

* Additional costs may apply

Sample Research

Numera’s global macro service combines modern macro theory with advanced quantitative techniques to help global investors and firms evaluate economic and financial stress while minimizing errors in prediction.

See the example below for further details on the Numera approach.

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Become a client

Whether you're looking for an individual report or require extensive market research and quantitative analysis, we offer you the flexibility to become a client under your terms.

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