Embracing

Uncertainty

Macroeconomic analysis is imperfect. Even with well-specified models, future shocks will necessarily cause projections to deviate from their outcome. Failure to account for different sources of uncertainty – and their pattern of transmission – can result in poor decision-making.

Numera’s Global Macro Service combines modern macro theory with advanced quantitative techniques to help global investors and firms evaluate economic and financial stress while minimizing errors in prediction.

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Features of Service

  • Global Macro Monitor
    Monthly update on global macro conditions, impact on asset prices and risks to the outlook.
  • Industrial Activity Updates
    Monthly perspective on global and US industrial activity and investment implications.

Our Mandate

Our goal is to help clients understand drivers of growth, quantify downside risks, and anticipate shifts in the global economy. Our measurable risk assessment via probability forecasting shifts the emphasis from central outcomes to the monitoring of less likely, yet economically meaningful, scenarios. The approach is instrumental for investment strategy, as it helps identify the many risks surrounding future outcomes.

See the oil market example below for further details on the Numera approach.

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Our Methodology

The research spectrum below illustrates our approach to macroeconomic analysis. While primarily empirical, our tried and tested models incorporate theoretical and qualitative insights should these prove useful in prediction. The procedure ensures transparency and flexibility, with model choice differing widely across concepts depending on their forecasting performance.

Become a client

Whether you're looking for an individual report or require extensive market research and quantitative analysis, we offer you the flexibility to become a client under your terms.

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