Specialty chemicals are part of Numera Macro’s broader commodity coverage. Our chemicals coverage is aimed mainly at helping clients forecast input costs and to manage downside risks. What distinguishes our offering is a probabilistic assessment of future price movements, and a rigorous quantitative take of the various economic and market-specific factors driving price fluctuations. Our chemicals models are fully linked to our global macro and energy models and are informed by the extensive analysis other teams at Numera do on key end-use markets.

Our approach, using probability forecasting, is critical for cost-risk management, as macro and energy shocks often cause prices to deviate sharply from market expectations. With our tools, users can monitor the likelihood of various price scenarios, assess sensitivity to various shocks, and manage risks to their operations.

As a subscriber, you receive 5-year probability forecasts of prices (in index form updated at a quarterly frequency) for a range of specialty chemicals including surface active agents, inks, adhesives and starch.

Note that our sectoral analysts can also provide insights on cellulose-based specialty chemicals like acetate, ethers and MCC, as well as bio-chemicals like lignin and tall oil.