FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
MONTREAL, QC, December 23, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its ‘Global Industrial Tracker’, which shows that global industrial production has been surprisingly resilient since the onset of the ‘second wave’.
Industrial growth exceeded expectations in October, rising 0.9% month-over-month (MoM), 0.5 points higher than anticipated last month based on preliminary data. Perhaps surprisingly, much of this improvement reflected above-trend growth in Western Europe (+1.6% MoM), which is explained by the fact that public health authorities allowed factories to remain operational, while imposing restrictions at the consumer level.
Our advance estimate for November suggests that global production continued to expand above-trend, rising an estimated 0.9%. This would push worldwide industrial activity 3.7% below its pre-COVID path, versus -13.5% at the trough in April.
While industrial activity could weaken in December and January as public health risks increase, global production should strengthen markedly in the first half of next year on the back of higher retail traffic and reduced economic uncertainty.