MONTREAL, QC, December 1, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global retail sales, which point to slowing consumption growth and rising uncertainty amid the second wave.

Our revised estimate for October points to a 0.5% gain versus September (-2.8% YoY). Retail sales likely weakened further in November (+0.2% MoM), with high frequency indicators revealing only a 57% chance of growth worldwide. Falling mobility, most notably in Europe, will probably depress goods consumption during the winter months, although substitution away from contact services should limit the extent of the decline.

Meanwhile, final figures for September show that real retail sales rose 0.4% MoM (-4.0% YoY) worldwide, falling short of our previous advance estimate (+1.1% MoM). The underperformance stemmed from a 1.8% MoM contraction in the EU, where rising infections started to limit retail traffic towards late September. In contrast, retail spending continued to strengthen across emerging economies, most notably in Latin America.

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