Macroeconomic analysis is imperfect. Even with well-specified models, future shocks will necessarily cause projections to deviate from their outcome. Failure to account for different sources of uncertainty – and their pattern of transmission – can result in poor decision-making.

At Numera Analytics, our goal is to help clients understand sources of growth, quantify downside risks, and anticipate shifts in the global economy. Unlike conventional economists and strategists, we rely on sophisticated probability forecasting techniques to evaluate less likely, yet economically meaningful, scenarios. The approach is instrumental for investment strategy, as it helps identify the many risks surrounding future outcomes.