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MONTREAL, QC, January 21, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which shows factory output remains resilient to the second wave. World manufacturing expanded 0.6% MoM in November, in line with last month’s advance estimate, as factories were largely spared from tightened control measures at the consumer level.
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MONTREAL, QC, January 5, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its ‘Global Retail Sales Tracker’, which shows that the ‘second wave’ is having a noticeable impact on global consumer spending.
Worldwide retail sales grew in line with expectations in October, rising 0.3% month-over-month, in line with last month’s preliminary estimate. Retail turnover exceeded its ‘equilibrium’ level (i.e. the consumption level consistent with stable inflation) for the second consecutive month, in part owing to substitution from unavailable services towards goods.
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MONTREAL, QC, December 23, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its ‘Global Industrial Tracker’, which shows that global industrial production has been surprisingly resilient since the onset of the ‘second wave’.
Industrial growth exceeded expectations in October, rising 0.9% month-over-month (MoM), 0.5 points higher than anticipated last month based on preliminary data. Perhaps surprisingly, much of this improvement reflected above-trend growth in Western Europe (+1.6% MoM), which is explained by the fact that public health authorities allowed factories to remain operational, while imposing restrictions at the consumer level.
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MONTREAL, QC, December 18, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera’s advance estimates for global manufacturing reconfirm growth is coming to a standstill. While prospects of mass vaccinations have improved the economic outlook for 2021, public health risks remain elevated in much of the Northern hemisphere. Our revised estimate for November reveals growth in factory output of 0.7% MoM (+0.8% YoY), considerably weaker than the 1.2% average pace of growth recorded over the three previous months. Output growth will likely weaken further in December as most developed economies maintain lockdown measures.
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MONTREAL, QC, December 1, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global retail sales, which point to slowing consumption growth and rising uncertainty amid the second wave.
Our revised estimate for October points to a 0.5% gain versus September (-2.8% YoY). Retail sales likely weakened further in November (+0.2% MoM), with high frequency indicators revealing only a 57% chance of growth worldwide. Falling mobility, most notably in Europe, will probably depress goods consumption during the winter months, although substitution away from contact services should limit the extent of the decline.
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MONTREAL, QC, November 24, 2020 (Press Release) –Numera today released its advance estimates of global industrial production, which support the view that the global economy is decelerating this quarter due to the ‘second wave’.
Our revised estimate for October reveals worldwide production increased 0.5% MoM (-1.7% YoY), well below the pace of growth recorded between May and September (2% on average). The slowdown will likely continue this month: the most likely outcome is of growth of just 0.1% MoM, with a 40% probability of decline.
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MONTREAL, QC, November 23, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera’s advance estimates for world manufacturing point towards a significant slowdown in Q4 factory output amid rising infection rates and declining mobility in advanced economies. Our revised estimate for October points to growth of 0.8% MoM (-0.2% YoY), as the recovery likely halted in countries experiencing a ‘second wave’. Our advance estimate for November reveals a 40% chance of contraction this month, with the most likely outcome being factory output slowing to a standstill. This rapid deceleration again reflects weakening activity among countries re-imposing lockdown rules.
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MONTREAL, QC, October 26, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global retail sales, which suggest a marked slowdown in consumption growth, owing in part to rising infection rates across advanced economies.
Our revised estimate for September shows a 1.1% month-over-month (MoM) gain as the most likely outcome, a marked slowdown versus August (see below). Retail sales likely weakened further this month, with our modelling of high frequency indicators pointing to nearly flat growth in October (+0.2% MoM). Given the increase in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, however, the full extent of the slowdown remains uncertain and the tail risk is significant as seen in the graph below.
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MONTREAL, QC, October 21, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global industrial production for October, which suggest that growth has come to a near standstill. Our revised estimate for September reveals worldwide production last month expanded just 0.1% month-over-month (MoM), and was still 3.5% below its year-ago level. We expect this trend to continue this month. Our modelling of high-frequency data points to a gain of only 0.1% MoM as the most likely outcome for October, and roughly a 40% chance of contraction.
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MONTREAL, QC, October 20, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates for global manufacturing in October, which support the view that the recovery has likely stalled. Our revised estimate for September shows growth slowed to +0.3% month-over-month (MoM) after several months of above-trend gains driven by the lifting of lockdown measures. Our advance estimate for October indicates a further slowdown to just +0.1%, and importantly, a 40% probability that final numbers could show an outright decline.
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