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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Vaccine progress stalls

April 23, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, April 23, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global progress towards ‘herd’ immunity stalled this past week, primarily owing to a reduced pace of vaccinations in emerging economies. The expected time towards 70% immunity rose by nearly 2% worldwide to 13 months, as inoculation rates stalled in East Asia and parts of Latin America.

The rate of progress in developed markets also softened, especially in countries with already high vaccine coverage. Our latest estimates suggest that DMs could reach herd immunity in about 4 months. The EM slowdown reflects both production constraints (e.g. in India) or difficulties in securing imported doses. In DMs, on the other hand, the weaker pace of growth reflects growing vaccine ‘hesitancy’, in part owing to safety concerns over non-mRNA doses.

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Introducing Numera Analytics’s herd immunity tracker

April 16, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, April 16, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the first edition of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Joaquin Kritz Lara, Numera’s head of Macro Research, commented on this new weekly report: “Since most remaining economic losses worldwide are concentrated in contact services, tracking progress towards immunity is of crucial importance in predicting the speed and scope of recovery. Our goal with this weekly update is to provide the ‘what if’ of ongoing vaccination campaigns”.

Daily global vaccinations accelerated further last week, cutting the time towards herd immunity by around 6%. At current vaccination rates, the world is one year away from reaching the 70% immunity threshold. Progress is much greater in developed markets, where rapid rollouts since March have dramatically reduced the number of months until normality. Our latest estimates suggest that developed markets as a whole could reach herd immunity in 4.3 months.

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Global retail sales continued to weaken in Q1

April 8, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, April 8, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that global retail spending continued to weaken in Q1 after peaking last October.

Real retail sales edged up 0.8% in January, trailing expectations. The underperformance primarily stemmed from emerging markets, where retail traffic fell 7% in January amid a surge in COVID cases.

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Weak global industrial production in early 2021

March 31, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, March 31, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to weakening production in early 2021.

Our revised estimate for February reveals a 1% drop versus January, mainly due to reduced production amid severe winter storms in the US South. The February weather shock pushes world industrial activity 1.8% below its pre-COVID path.

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Temporary pullback in world manufacturing output

March 29, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, March 29, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals factory output experienced a pullback in early 2021, which we expect to be temporary.

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Global retail sales bounce back in early 2021

March 3, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, March 3, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that retail spending picked up in early 2021 after two months of decline.

Global retail turnover fell 0.4% in December, significantly better than the 1% contraction we had anticipated in last month’s Retail Tracker. This outperformance primarily reflected a stronger-than-expected recovery in Western Europe as authorities eased control measures.

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Vaccine optimism boosting global production

February 26, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, February 26, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to weakening but positive output growth early in 2021. However, we expect industrial activity to accelerate during the summer months as higher vaccination rates lift demand for consumer goods.

Global industrial production grew 1.2% month-over-month in December. The strong performance primarily reflected strong growth in China and the United States. Production in China continues to benefit from strong credit growth and public investment, whereas operating conditions in the US have strengthened on the back of strong business and residential investment.

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World manufacturing continues to expand in early 2021

February 25, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, February 25, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals factory output continues to expand well above trend despite very low away-from-home traffic.

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Second wave caused retail sales to contract in late 2020

February 1, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, February 1, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which confirms that the ‘second wave’ caused a contraction in global goods consumption in late 2020.

Worldwide retail sales fell 1.7% month-over-month in November, a steeper drop than the 0.7% decline we had anticipated in last month’s report. The underperformance primarily stemmed from a 5.5% decline in real retail sales in Western Europe, where partial lockdowns (mainly at the consumer level) resulted in a near 20-point drop in away-from-home traffic during this period.

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Vaccine optimism propped up global production in late 2020

January 26, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, January 26, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which reveals that global production accelerated in late 2020 even as mobility weakened. World industrial output increased 0.6% month-over-month (MoM) in November, even as growth weakened in advanced economies in response to tighter control measures.

Our revised estimate for December points to a strong 1.3% gain versus November, buoyed by sturdy output growth in China and the United States. Industrial activity in the US grew 1.6%, a 5-month high, as vaccine optimism caused a surge in orders for industrial equipment and intermediate inputs in anticipation of stronger final demand. By the end of 2020, global industrial production was 2.8% below its pre-crisis path, up from -14% last April.

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