MONTREAL, QC, April 23, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global progress towards ‘herd’ immunity stalled this past week, primarily owing to a reduced pace of vaccinations in emerging economies. The expected time towards 70% immunity rose by nearly 2% worldwide to 13 months, as inoculation rates stalled in East Asia and parts of Latin America.

The rate of progress in developed markets also softened, especially in countries with already high vaccine coverage. Our latest estimates suggest that DMs could reach herd immunity in about 4 months. The EM slowdown reflects both production constraints (e.g. in India) or difficulties in securing imported doses. In DMs, on the other hand, the weaker pace of growth reflects growing vaccine ‘hesitancy’, in part owing to safety concerns over non-mRNA doses.


For more information please contact Chris Cook at