Growth pushed back to spring time
All Posts By

Numera Analytics

Jan 06

Will the rally continue in 2021?

By Articles
The December 2020 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor  explores the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, and its impact on investor sentiment. Confidence in a swift economic recovery has caused equity prices to rise well above their ‘fair’ value, with important implications for new investments.
Read More
Jan 05

Global retail sales stumbled in final months of 2020

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, January 5, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its ‘Global Retail Sales Tracker’, which shows that the ‘second wave’ is having a noticeable impact on global consumer spending. Worldwide retail sales grew in line with expectations in October, rising 0.3% month-over-month, in line with last month’s preliminary estimate. Retail turnover exceeded its ‘equilibrium’ level (i.e. the consumption level consistent with stable inflation) for the second consecutive month, in part owing to…
Read More
Dec 23

Global industrial activity shows resiliency to ‘second wave’

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, December 23, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its ‘Global Industrial Tracker’, which shows that global industrial production has been surprisingly resilient since the onset of the ‘second wave’. Industrial growth exceeded expectations in October, rising 0.9% month-over-month (MoM), 0.5 points higher than anticipated last month based on preliminary data. Perhaps surprisingly, much of this improvement reflected above-trend growth in Western Europe (+1.6% MoM), which is explained by the fact…
Read More
Dec 18

World manufacturing production nearing a standstill

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, December 18, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera's advance estimates for global manufacturing reconfirm growth is coming to a standstill. While prospects of mass vaccinations have improved the economic outlook for 2021, public health risks remain elevated in much of the Northern hemisphere. Our revised estimate for November reveals growth in factory output of 0.7% MoM (+0.8% YoY), considerably weaker than the 1.2% average pace of growth recorded over the three previous months. Output growth will…
Read More
Dec 17

The reflation trade is back on for 2021

By Articles
In the December 2020 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor, we discuss our views about the global economy in 2021, and its implications for investment strategy. As the world transitions towards a ‘reflationary’ regime, we suggest overweighting hard assets and resource-rich equity markets.
Read More
Dec 09

Gold to approach $2000 in 2021

By Articles
The December 2020 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on gold prices, covering recent market developments and discussing our gold price outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
Read More
Dec 02

The shift is on towards ‘value’ stocks

By Articles
The November 2020 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor explores the financial implications of the COVID vaccine, focusing on the likelihood a durable shift towards ‘value’ stocks. We find there is a strong case for overweight positions on value stocks in 2021, although growth should regain its long-term edge once valuation differentials normalize.
Read More