Recovery in Global Industrial Production Slows
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Numera Analytics

Oct 22

Recovery in Global Industrial Production Slows

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, October 21, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global industrial production for October, which suggest that growth has come to a near standstill. Our revised estimate for September reveals worldwide production last month expanded just 0.1% month-over-month (MoM), and was still 3.5% below its year-ago level. We expect this trend to continue this month. Our modelling of high-frequency data points to a gain of only 0.1% MoM as the most…
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Oct 21

Growth in Global Manufacturing has Stalled

By Press
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONTREAL, QC, October 20, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates for global manufacturing in October, which support the view that the recovery has likely stalled. Our revised estimate for September shows growth slowed to +0.3% month-over-month (MoM) after several months of above-trend gains driven by the lifting of lockdown measures. Our advance estimate for October indicates a further slowdown to just +0.1%, and importantly, a 40% probability that final numbers could show an…
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Aug 18

A bull in a China shop

By Articles
The August 2020 edition of our Global Macro Monitor focuses on the Chinese economy and implications for commodity investments. We explore the factors behind China’s rapid bounce back, and the sustainability of the ongoing recovery. We then evaluate the appeal of new commodity investments, paying special attention to crude oil and industrial metals.
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Jul 30

The Stimulus Spending Puzzle

By Articles
The July 2020 edition of our US Macro Monitor focuses on the factors weighing on household spending, by far the biggest drag to activity today. We examine the disrupted link between income and consumption and evaluate the role of behavioural factors. We then discuss the implications of consumption shifts for US investment strategy.
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Jul 16

Europe Rises From the Ashes

By Articles
The July 2020 edition of our Global Macro Monitor focuses on the European economy. We first discuss our latest economic outlook for the region, given ongoing mobility trends. We then turn to European equities, which we have now upgraded to overweight on growth, FX, and valuation considerations.
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Jun 10

Will EM currencies finally recover?

By Articles
After rising sharply in value between February and May, the US dollar has weakened considerably since early June. In this special report, we explore the likelihood of EM currencies – hugely impacted by COVID – strengthening against the dollar on a trend basis. The report complements our recent two-part feature on EM economic and financial market prospects.
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Oct 04

Webinar – Numera’s Macro Outlook 2020

By Events
Our Industrial sector diffusion index has been flashing major decoupling with the broad economy for some time now. Although, the most likely outcome for the US is still positive growth, risks have markedly increased over the last quarter. Recession risk has jumped 24 points to 42% for 2020, the highest level since 2008. Join Joaquin Kritz Lara, Numera Analytics’ Head of Macro Research, on Wednesday, October 9th at 11:00 am EDT, as he discusses how macro risks influence asset returns,…
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Mar 14

Webinar – Corrugated Packaging Trends in the U.S. and Europe

By Events
Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar regarding key issues facing corrugated packaging markets, with a focus on North America and Europe. Numera's David Vallières along with VRP's Chip Dillon and Bloomberg's Joshua Zaret will discuss the supply/demand and pricing outlook in North America, new/projected capacity additions, secular demand sources, as well as China’s wastepaper import restrictions and what they mean for US containerboard producers. To participate in this…
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Jan 17

Webinar – Downside Risks to the Global Investment Outlook

By Events
Neglecting the assessment of risk by solely offering point forecasts is leaving you vulnerable to unforeseen surprises or worse, to extreme events like what transpired in 2008. Join Numera's Head of Macro Research & Senior Economist, Joaquín Kritz Lara and Chris Cook, Vice President of Global Macro Solutions for a live webinar covering key issues shaping the global investment outlook in 2019.
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Nov 05

Webinar – Where do pulp markets go from here?

By Events
Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar on key issues regarding the global pulp market, which has seen an extraordinary run-up in prices the last two years due to accelerated global economic growth and significant unscheduled mill downtime, along with an environmental clampdown in China on polluting capacity and recovered paper imports. To participate in this webinar taking place on Tuesday, November 13, 2018, 11:00 AM EST, please register…
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