October Reports Uncover Rising Inflationary Pressures With the International Monetary Fund bumping up its forecast for global economic growth and the markets continuing to experience a ‘Goldilocks’ rally - synchronized expansion with limited inflation - global conditions call for cautious optimism. But what do the fundamentals for global production and manufacturing tell us about future price developments? Our Industrial Production report, which is the timeliest release for global production figures, supports the positive notions. Global industrial production grew 3.6% year-on-year in August in…
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Real retail sales grew 4.7% year-over-year in July worldwide, maintaining the strong momentum of recent months. Retail volumes exceeded equilibrium consumption (the level of spending consistent with stable inflation) by about 0.5%, continuing to exert upward pressure on consumer prices. As expected, global inflation accelerated in July (+3.4% annualized), and in most major economies is now approaching long-term inflation expectations.
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Global manufacturing production rose 4.0% year-on-year in July, the strongest increase since April 2014. Although most of the gain was explained by stronger productive capacity (potential output was up 3.0%), cyclical factors were also at play. The output gap, a measure of market tightness in the manufacturing sector, hit a 28-month high in July. Strong demand conditions fuelled an uptick in producer price inflation, which had eased in May and June as a result of weak commodity prices.
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World industrial activity continues to trend upwards, growing 3.6% year-over-year in July. Industrial production is up 3.2% after seven months, well above the 1.6% rate of growth recorded in 2016. Underlying the improvement in industrial production is stronger demand for manufactured goods, which is also contributing to higher merchandise trade flows. World manufacturing production was up 3.5% through July, with sturdy rates of growth recorded in most large economies. Perhaps the one major exception is the United States, where the…
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Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar on key issues regarding the volatile old corrugated container (OCC) market and its impact on the corrugated packaging industry. To participate in this webinar taking place on September 21, 2017 at 11:00 AM EST, please register here.
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Les effets de la récession sur la demande de papiers sanitaires, en dépit de la croissance de la population, peuvent être en partie expliqués par le fait que les jeunes adultes demeurent plus longtemps qu’auparavant sous le toit familial. L’augmentation du salaire nominal promet toutefois d’espérer une croissance continue au cours des cinq prochaines années.
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Notre récente expansion nous a poussés à embaucher trois nouveaux analystes, chacun et chacune animé d’une passion pour l’économie et les solutions guidées par les données. Pierce Mullin est diplômé de l’University College de Londres avec une M.Sc. en économie (avec distinction); François Chastanet a étudié à HEC Paris, a obtenu un MBA de HEC Montréal et profite d’une expérience professionnelle au Brésil; Demetra Papanagiotou a décroché son premier diplôme en Gestion financière et services bancaires de l’Université du Pirée…
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Quelles sont les véritables causes des variations du prix du pétrole brut ? Contrairement à la croyance populaire, les variations de l’offre de pétrole sont d’ordre secondaire dans l’explication de la récente chute du prix de celui-ci. Dans cette étude (cliquez ici), Numera explore comment ce déclin est essentiellement le résultat de changements inattendus dans l’humeur du marché.
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Contrary to popular belief, changes in oil supply are of secondary importance in explaining recent oil price developments. In this study, Numera explores how the decline has mainly been the result of unanticipated shifts in market sentiment.
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The recent strong performance of the European corrugated market can be attributed, to a large extent, to the unanticipated sharp drop in oil prices. This is the key finding of a recent econometric analysis by Numera Analytics. Moreover, the research indicates any quick rebound in oil prices could reverse these gains, unless the price increase is mainly driven by stronger global macroeconomic conditions.
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