The October 2020 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor focuses on the short and medium-term impact of a ‘second wave’ and of a potential stimulus bill. We first discuss how both developments affect the growth outlook, and then explore implications for equity returns and asset allocation.
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MONTREAL, QC, October 26, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global retail sales, which suggest a marked slowdown in consumption growth, owing in part to rising infection rates across advanced economies.
Our revised estimate for September shows a 1.1% month-over-month (MoM) gain as the most likely outcome, a marked slowdown versus August (see below). Retail sales likely weakened further this month, with our modelling of high frequency indicators pointing to nearly flat growth in October (+0.2% MoM). Given the increase in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, however, the full extent of the slowdown remains uncertain and the tail risk is significant as seen in the graph below.
The October 2020 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor analyzes the attractiveness of battered LatAm and EMEA stocks amid shifting public health prospects. We find that falling infection rates and a favourable USD and commodity outlook greatly improve the relative appeal of non-Asia EM equities.
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MONTREAL, QC, October 21, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global industrial production for October, which suggest that growth has come to a near standstill. Our revised estimate for September reveals worldwide production last month expanded just 0.1% month-over-month (MoM), and was still 3.5% below its year-ago level. We expect this trend to continue this month. Our modelling of high-frequency data points to a gain of only 0.1% MoM as the most likely outcome for October, and roughly a 40% chance of contraction.
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MONTREAL, QC, October 20, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates for global manufacturing in October, which support the view that the recovery has likely stalled. Our revised estimate for September shows growth slowed to +0.3% month-over-month (MoM) after several months of above-trend gains driven by the lifting of lockdown measures. Our advance estimate for October indicates a further slowdown to just +0.1%, and importantly, a 40% probability that final numbers could show an outright decline.
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The August 2020 edition of our Global Macro Monitor focuses on the Chinese economy and implications for commodity investments. We explore the factors behind China’s rapid bounce back, and the sustainability of the ongoing recovery. We then evaluate the appeal of new commodity investments, paying special attention to crude oil and industrial metals.
The July 2020 edition of our US Macro Monitor focuses on the factors weighing on household spending, by far the biggest drag to activity today. We examine the disrupted link between income and consumption and evaluate the role of behavioural factors. We then discuss the implications of consumption shifts for US investment strategy.
The July 2020 edition of our Global Macro Monitor focuses on the European economy. We first discuss our latest economic outlook for the region, given ongoing mobility trends. We then turn to European equities, which we have now upgraded to overweight on growth, FX, and valuation considerations.
After rising sharply in value between February and May, the US dollar has weakened considerably since early June. In this special report, we explore the likelihood of EM currencies – hugely impacted by COVID – strengthening against the dollar on a trend basis. The report complements our recent two-part feature on EM economic and financial market prospects.
Our Industrial sector diffusion index has been flashing major decoupling with the broad economy for some time now. Although, the most likely outcome for the US is still positive growth, risks have markedly increased over the last quarter. Recession risk has jumped 24 points to 42% for 2020, the highest level since 2008.
Join Joaquin Kritz Lara, Numera Analytics’ Head of Macro Research, on Wednesday, October 9th at 11:00 am EDT, as he discusses how macro risks influence asset returns, and how to adjust your portfolio moving into 2020. Click here to register to our webinar.