Production recovering amid Delta concerns

August 26, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, August 26, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which shows global production continues to recover despite rising concerns about the Delta wave of COVID infections.

Worldwide industrial output rose 0.9% month-over-month in June after a tightening of restrictions in Asia caused global output losses of 0.3% the previous month. The June gain pushed industrial production to just 0.6% below its pre-pandemic path. This compares to a manufacturing output gap of 1.5%. The difference reflects subdued mining activity, with global crude oil production only starting to strengthen in late June.

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Global industrial output slowing into H2

August 2, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, August 2, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth slowing into the second half.

Industrial production contracted 0.7% in May, primarily owing to substitution away from goods and towards contact services. In addition, demand for capital goods has started to weaken given an already very high investment share of GDP. High-frequency data points to a partial recovery in June and July, partly on the back of a ~6% increase in crude oil production in OPEC+ countries.

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Worldwide industrial activity normalizing into H2

June 30, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, June 30, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth normalizing into the second half.

Global industrial production should continue to benefit from unusually strong business investment, driven by low borrowing costs and further declines in economic uncertainty. Moreover, unlike manufacturing activity, falling public health risks should help boost mining activity and crude oil production.

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Temporary slowdown in industrial activity

June 3, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, June 3, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth slowing into the second quarter.

After rising roughly 1% per month in Q1/21, global production rose an estimated 0.3% month-over-month in April – in line with its long-term trend. Looked at by region, most of the growth is now stemming from advanced economies, where improved business and consumer sentiment are boosting the production of investment and consumer goods.

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Growth resuming into the second quarter

April 29, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, April 29, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth resuming into the second quarter.

As we expected, worldwide production fully recovered in March (+0.8% month-over-month), reflecting stronger operating conditions in the United States, as factories and oil miners ramped up production following severe weather disruptions the previous month.

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Weak global industrial production in early 2021

March 31, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, March 31, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to weakening production in early 2021.

Our revised estimate for February reveals a 1% drop versus January, mainly due to reduced production amid severe winter storms in the US South. The February weather shock pushes world industrial activity 1.8% below its pre-COVID path.

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Vaccine optimism boosting global production

February 26, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, February 26, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to weakening but positive output growth early in 2021. However, we expect industrial activity to accelerate during the summer months as higher vaccination rates lift demand for consumer goods.

Global industrial production grew 1.2% month-over-month in December. The strong performance primarily reflected strong growth in China and the United States. Production in China continues to benefit from strong credit growth and public investment, whereas operating conditions in the US have strengthened on the back of strong business and residential investment.

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Vaccine optimism propped up global production in late 2020

January 26, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, January 26, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which reveals that global production accelerated in late 2020 even as mobility weakened. World industrial output increased 0.6% month-over-month (MoM) in November, even as growth weakened in advanced economies in response to tighter control measures.

Our revised estimate for December points to a strong 1.3% gain versus November, buoyed by sturdy output growth in China and the United States. Industrial activity in the US grew 1.6%, a 5-month high, as vaccine optimism caused a surge in orders for industrial equipment and intermediate inputs in anticipation of stronger final demand. By the end of 2020, global industrial production was 2.8% below its pre-crisis path, up from -14% last April.

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Global industrial activity shows resiliency to ‘second wave’

December 23, 2020 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, December 23, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its ‘Global Industrial Tracker’, which shows that global industrial production has been surprisingly resilient since the onset of the ‘second wave’.

Industrial growth exceeded expectations in October, rising 0.9% month-over-month (MoM), 0.5 points higher than anticipated last month based on preliminary data. Perhaps surprisingly, much of this improvement reflected above-trend growth in Western Europe (+1.6% MoM), which is explained by the fact that public health authorities allowed factories to remain operational, while imposing restrictions at the consumer level.

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Global industrial output decelerating in Q4 due to ‘second wave’

November 24, 2020 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, November 24, 2020 (Press Release) –Numera today released its advance estimates of global industrial production, which support the view that the global economy is decelerating this quarter due to the ‘second wave’.

Our revised estimate for October reveals worldwide production increased 0.5% MoM (-1.7% YoY), well below the pace of growth recorded between May and September (2% on average). The slowdown will likely continue this month: the most likely outcome is of growth of just 0.1% MoM, with a 40% probability of decline.

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