The February 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor explores the possibility of ‘overheating’. While GDP should normalize by Q4/21, it will take longer for the job market to recover, mitigating inflationary pressures. The macro outlook favours stocks over bonds, especially ‘reopening’ sectors.
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MONTREAL, QC, March 3, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that retail spending picked up in early 2021 after two months of decline.
Global retail turnover fell 0.4% in December, significantly better than the 1% contraction we had anticipated in last month’s Retail Tracker. This outperformance primarily reflected a stronger-than-expected recovery in Western Europe as authorities eased control measures.
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MONTREAL, QC, February 26, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to weakening but positive output growth early in 2021. However, we expect industrial activity to accelerate during the summer months as higher vaccination rates lift demand for consumer goods.
Global industrial production grew 1.2% month-over-month in December. The strong performance primarily reflected strong growth in China and the United States. Production in China continues to benefit from strong credit growth and public investment, whereas operating conditions in the US have strengthened on the back of strong business and residential investment.
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MONTREAL, QC, February 25, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals factory output continues to expand well above trend despite very low away-from-home traffic.
The February 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on crude oil, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
The February 2021 edition of Numera Analytics’ Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation, and exchange rates.
The January 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor explores the growth and equity market implications of President Biden’s $1.9T stimulus proposal. We find the full package could lift real GDP by about 3.5% this year and operating earnings by as much as 15%.
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MONTREAL, QC, February 1, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which confirms that the ‘second wave’ caused a contraction in global goods consumption in late 2020.
Worldwide retail sales fell 1.7% month-over-month in November, a steeper drop than the 0.7% decline we had anticipated in last month’s report. The underperformance primarily stemmed from a 5.5% decline in real retail sales in Western Europe, where partial lockdowns (mainly at the consumer level) resulted in a near 20-point drop in away-from-home traffic during this period.
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MONTREAL, QC, January 26, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which reveals that global production accelerated in late 2020 even as mobility weakened. World industrial output increased 0.6% month-over-month (MoM) in November, even as growth weakened in advanced economies in response to tighter control measures.
Our revised estimate for December points to a strong 1.3% gain versus November, buoyed by sturdy output growth in China and the United States. Industrial activity in the US grew 1.6%, a 5-month high, as vaccine optimism caused a surge in orders for industrial equipment and intermediate inputs in anticipation of stronger final demand. By the end of 2020, global industrial production was 2.8% below its pre-crisis path, up from -14% last April.
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MONTREAL, QC, January 21, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which shows factory output remains resilient to the second wave. World manufacturing expanded 0.6% MoM in November, in line with last month’s advance estimate, as factories were largely spared from tightened control measures at the consumer level.