The February 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on crude oil, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
This month’s edition focuses on crude oil prices, up $20 / bbl over the past three months despite sizeable declines in global mobility. We offer a ‘deep dive’ on the factors behind the recent ‘bull’ run, analyzing the impact of economy-wide and industry-specific shocks on current and future market dynamics.
We find that oil prices retain a very high upside versus most other risky assets. We expect spot Brent prices to exceed $70 / bbl by late 2021, driven by sizeable improvements in consumption as public health risks diminish.