The December 2020 edition of our Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation and exchange rates.
The December 2020 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on gold prices, covering recent market developments and discussing our gold price outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
The November 2020 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor explores the financial implications of the COVID vaccine, focusing on the likelihood a durable shift towards ‘value’ stocks. We find there is a strong case for overweight positions on value stocks in 2021, although growth should regain its long-term edge once valuation differentials normalize.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
MONTREAL, QC, December 1, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global retail sales, which point to slowing consumption growth and rising uncertainty amid the second wave.
Our revised estimate for October points to a 0.5% gain versus September (-2.8% YoY). Retail sales likely weakened further in November (+0.2% MoM), with high frequency indicators revealing only a 57% chance of growth worldwide. Falling mobility, most notably in Europe, will probably depress goods consumption during the winter months, although substitution away from contact services should limit the extent of the decline.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
MONTREAL, QC, November 24, 2020 (Press Release) –Numera today released its advance estimates of global industrial production, which support the view that the global economy is decelerating this quarter due to the ‘second wave’.
Our revised estimate for October reveals worldwide production increased 0.5% MoM (-1.7% YoY), well below the pace of growth recorded between May and September (2% on average). The slowdown will likely continue this month: the most likely outcome is of growth of just 0.1% MoM, with a 40% probability of decline.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
MONTREAL, QC, November 23, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera’s advance estimates for world manufacturing point towards a significant slowdown in Q4 factory output amid rising infection rates and declining mobility in advanced economies. Our revised estimate for October points to growth of 0.8% MoM (-0.2% YoY), as the recovery likely halted in countries experiencing a ‘second wave’. Our advance estimate for November reveals a 40% chance of contraction this month, with the most likely outcome being factory output slowing to a standstill. This rapid deceleration again reflects weakening activity among countries re-imposing lockdown rules.
The November 2020 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor focuses on equity market prospects for Europe in a context of rapidly worsening public health outcomes. Although favourable vaccine developments boost the medium-term outlook, high stock prices and a probable near-term downturn worsen the appeal of new equity investments.
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The November 2020 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on crude oil, covering recent market developments and discussing the oil price outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
The November 2020 edition of our Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation and exchange rates.
No region has been as disrupted by COVID-19 as Latin America. The virus has weighted heavily on growth and equity prices, but shifting public health prospects may revert the current trend. In this special report, we discuss our latest views on LatAm equity investments. We find there is a strong case for overweight positions on 12M holdings.