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Second wave caused retail sales to contract in late 2020

February 1, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, February 1, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which confirms that the ‘second wave’ caused a contraction in global goods consumption in late 2020.

Worldwide retail sales fell 1.7% month-over-month in November, a steeper drop than the 0.7% decline we had anticipated in last month’s report. The underperformance primarily stemmed from a 5.5% decline in real retail sales in Western Europe, where partial lockdowns (mainly at the consumer level) resulted in a near 20-point drop in away-from-home traffic during this period.

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Vaccine optimism propped up global production in late 2020

January 26, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, January 26, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which reveals that global production accelerated in late 2020 even as mobility weakened. World industrial output increased 0.6% month-over-month (MoM) in November, even as growth weakened in advanced economies in response to tighter control measures.

Our revised estimate for December points to a strong 1.3% gain versus November, buoyed by sturdy output growth in China and the United States. Industrial activity in the US grew 1.6%, a 5-month high, as vaccine optimism caused a surge in orders for industrial equipment and intermediate inputs in anticipation of stronger final demand. By the end of 2020, global industrial production was 2.8% below its pre-crisis path, up from -14% last April.

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World manufacturing remains resilient as 2021 begins

January 21, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, January 21, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which shows factory output remains resilient to the second wave. World manufacturing expanded 0.6% MoM in November, in line with last month’s advance estimate, as factories were largely spared from tightened control measures at the consumer level.

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Growth pushed back to spring time

January 19, 2021 | Articles

The January 2021 edition of our Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation, and exchange rates.

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Will the metals ‘bull’ run continue?

January 13, 2021 | Articles

The January 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on base metals and iron ore, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.

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Will the rally continue in 2021?

January 6, 2021 | Articles

The December 2020 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor  explores the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, and its impact on investor sentiment. Confidence in a swift economic recovery has caused equity prices to rise well above their ‘fair’ value, with important implications for new investments.

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Global retail sales stumbled in final months of 2020

January 5, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, January 5, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its ‘Global Retail Sales Tracker’, which shows that the ‘second wave’ is having a noticeable impact on global consumer spending.

Worldwide retail sales grew in line with expectations in October, rising 0.3% month-over-month, in line with last month’s preliminary estimate. Retail turnover exceeded its ‘equilibrium’ level (i.e. the consumption level consistent with stable inflation) for the second consecutive month, in part owing to substitution from unavailable services towards goods.

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Global industrial activity shows resiliency to ‘second wave’

December 23, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, December 23, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its ‘Global Industrial Tracker’, which shows that global industrial production has been surprisingly resilient since the onset of the ‘second wave’.

Industrial growth exceeded expectations in October, rising 0.9% month-over-month (MoM), 0.5 points higher than anticipated last month based on preliminary data. Perhaps surprisingly, much of this improvement reflected above-trend growth in Western Europe (+1.6% MoM), which is explained by the fact that public health authorities allowed factories to remain operational, while imposing restrictions at the consumer level.

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World manufacturing production nearing a standstill

December 18, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, December 18, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera’s advance estimates for global manufacturing reconfirm growth is coming to a standstill. While prospects of mass vaccinations have improved the economic outlook for 2021, public health risks remain elevated in much of the Northern hemisphere. Our revised estimate for November reveals growth in factory output of 0.7% MoM (+0.8% YoY), considerably weaker than the 1.2% average pace of growth recorded over the three previous months. Output growth will likely weaken further in December as most developed economies maintain lockdown measures.

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The reflation trade is back on for 2021

December 17, 2020 | Articles

In the December 2020 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor, we discuss our views about the global economy in 2021, and its implications for investment strategy. As the world transitions towards a ‘reflationary’ regime, we suggest overweighting hard assets and resource-rich equity markets. Read More