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Global retail sales bounce back in early 2021

March 3, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, March 3, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that retail spending picked up in early 2021 after two months of decline.

Global retail turnover fell 0.4% in December, significantly better than the 1% contraction we had anticipated in last month’s Retail Tracker. This outperformance primarily reflected a stronger-than-expected recovery in Western Europe as authorities eased control measures.

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Vaccine optimism boosting global production

February 26, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, February 26, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to weakening but positive output growth early in 2021. However, we expect industrial activity to accelerate during the summer months as higher vaccination rates lift demand for consumer goods.

Global industrial production grew 1.2% month-over-month in December. The strong performance primarily reflected strong growth in China and the United States. Production in China continues to benefit from strong credit growth and public investment, whereas operating conditions in the US have strengthened on the back of strong business and residential investment.

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World manufacturing continues to expand in early 2021

February 25, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, February 25, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals factory output continues to expand well above trend despite very low away-from-home traffic.

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Industrial Production

Oil ‘bull’ run to continue

February 11, 2021 | Articles

The February 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on crude oil, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.

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Will the global economy overheat?

February 9, 2021 | Articles

The February 2021 edition of Numera Analytics’ Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation, and exchange rates. 

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Economy to soar with Biden stimulus

February 3, 2021 | Articles

The January 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor explores the growth and equity market implications of President Biden’s $1.9T stimulus proposal. We find the full package could lift real GDP by about 3.5% this year and operating earnings by as much as 15%.

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Second wave caused retail sales to contract in late 2020

February 1, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, February 1, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which confirms that the ‘second wave’ caused a contraction in global goods consumption in late 2020.

Worldwide retail sales fell 1.7% month-over-month in November, a steeper drop than the 0.7% decline we had anticipated in last month’s report. The underperformance primarily stemmed from a 5.5% decline in real retail sales in Western Europe, where partial lockdowns (mainly at the consumer level) resulted in a near 20-point drop in away-from-home traffic during this period.

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Vaccine optimism propped up global production in late 2020

January 26, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, January 26, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which reveals that global production accelerated in late 2020 even as mobility weakened. World industrial output increased 0.6% month-over-month (MoM) in November, even as growth weakened in advanced economies in response to tighter control measures.

Our revised estimate for December points to a strong 1.3% gain versus November, buoyed by sturdy output growth in China and the United States. Industrial activity in the US grew 1.6%, a 5-month high, as vaccine optimism caused a surge in orders for industrial equipment and intermediate inputs in anticipation of stronger final demand. By the end of 2020, global industrial production was 2.8% below its pre-crisis path, up from -14% last April.

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World manufacturing remains resilient as 2021 begins

January 21, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, January 21, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which shows factory output remains resilient to the second wave. World manufacturing expanded 0.6% MoM in November, in line with last month’s advance estimate, as factories were largely spared from tightened control measures at the consumer level.

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Growth pushed back to spring time

January 19, 2021 | Articles

The January 2021 edition of our Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation, and exchange rates.

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