Bond weakness to continue
Tag

GDP

Apr 26

Bond weakness to continue

By Articles
The April 2022 edition of our US Macro Stategist focuses on the US bond market outlook as the Fed reduces liquidity support. We evaluate the attractiveness of sovereign debt as a macro hedge, assess duration plays, and evaluate the relative appeal of inflation-linked vs. nominal bonds.
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Mar 24

Not that 70s show

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The March 2022 edition of our US Macro Stategist focuses on the impact of rising oil prices and Fed tightening on the US economy and stock/bond portfolios. While both factors will dent growth prospects, we believe that fears of 1970s-type stagflation remain overstated, favouring risky assets.
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Mar 01

Fed wants to avoid repeat of 1970s

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The February 2022 edition of our US Macro Stategist focuses on two key sources of risk to the US equity outlook: a lengthy Fed tightening cycle, and a speculative spike in oil prices. We explore the implications of both shocks on recession risk, and the probability of a ‘bear’ market.
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Jan 31

Is 2022 the new 2001?

By Articles
The January 2022 edition of our US Macro Stategist explores the factors behind the ongoing stock market sell-off, and the likelihood of a lengthy correction. Given low recession risk, investors should retain a high equity exposure, but rotate away from tech as rising yields compress valuations.
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Nov 30

Is the Fed right about inflation?

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The November 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Stategist explores the ongoing ‘transitory’ versus ‘permanent’ inflation debate. We find strong evidence that professional forecasters and policymakers are underestimating US inflationary risks, and therefore the path of long-term yields in 2022.
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Nov 04

From reflation to overheating

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The October 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Stategist discusses the investment implications of a probable shift from reflation to overheating. We find strong evidence the economy could overheat in 2022, favouring value over growth and worsening the appeal of sovereign bonds as a macro hedge.
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Oct 05

Taper tension

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The September 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Stategist (formerly Monitor) focuses on Fed policy, exploring the financial market implications of Fed tapering and the likelihood of a tightening cycle. We find that multiple rate hikes remains unlikely, continuing to support equity returns even as long-term yields pick up.
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Sep 02

Macro implications of infrastructure bill

By Articles
The August 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor investigates the economic and financial market implications of the bi-partisan Infrastructure and Jobs Act (IIJA). We find that the IIJA could lift US GDP by around 0.5%, and improve the relative appeal of equities versus fixed income holdings.
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