The November 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Stategist explores the ongoing ‘transitory’ versus ‘permanent’ inflation debate. We find strong evidence that professional forecasters and policymakers are underestimating US inflationary risks, and therefore the path of long-term yields in 2022.

Few macro themes are proving as contentious this year as the inflation outlook. While the Federal Reserve and most professional forecasters expect inflationary pressures to ease markedly next year, high inflation readings are causing medium-term inflation expectations to de-anchor:

In this month’s US Macro Strategist, we present our latest views on inflation, and discuss implications for US bond and equity investments. Please note that Numera clients can download all the charts through our client website. To download all the charts, please contact Hayley Reid at