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Global retail sales slowing into Q4

December 1, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, December 1, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global retail sales, which point to slowing consumption growth and rising uncertainty amid the second wave.

Our revised estimate for October points to a 0.5% gain versus September (-2.8% YoY). Retail sales likely weakened further in November (+0.2% MoM), with high frequency indicators revealing only a 57% chance of growth worldwide. Falling mobility, most notably in Europe, will probably depress goods consumption during the winter months, although substitution away from contact services should limit the extent of the decline.

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Global industrial output decelerating in Q4 due to ‘second wave’

November 24, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, November 24, 2020 (Press Release) –Numera today released its advance estimates of global industrial production, which support the view that the global economy is decelerating this quarter due to the ‘second wave’.

Our revised estimate for October reveals worldwide production increased 0.5% MoM (-1.7% YoY), well below the pace of growth recorded between May and September (2% on average). The slowdown will likely continue this month: the most likely outcome is of growth of just 0.1% MoM, with a 40% probability of decline.

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Global manufacturing slowing to a halt

November 23, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, November 23, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera’s advance estimates for world manufacturing point towards a significant slowdown in Q4 factory output amid rising infection rates and declining mobility in advanced economies. Our revised estimate for October points to growth of 0.8% MoM (-0.2% YoY), as the recovery likely halted in countries experiencing a ‘second wave’. Our advance estimate for November reveals a 40% chance of contraction this month, with the most likely outcome being factory output slowing to a standstill. This rapid deceleration again reflects weakening activity among countries re-imposing lockdown rules.

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Euro stocks face imminent risks

November 20, 2020 | Articles

The November 2020 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor focuses on equity market prospects for Europe in a context of rapidly worsening public health outcomes. Although favourable vaccine developments boost the medium-term outlook, high stock prices and a probable near-term downturn worsen the appeal of new equity investments.
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Vaccine news boosts long-term global outlook

November 11, 2020 | Articles

The November 2020 edition of our Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation and exchange rates.

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LatAm ready to outperform

November 5, 2020 | Articles

No region has been as disrupted by COVID-19 as Latin America. The virus has weighted heavily on growth and equity prices, but shifting public health prospects may revert the current trend. In this special report, we discuss our latest views on LatAm equity investments. We find there is a strong case for overweight positions on 12M holdings.

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The Epidemic Strikes Back

October 29, 2020 | Articles

The October 2020 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor focuses on the short and medium-term impact of a ‘second wave’ and of a potential stimulus bill. We first discuss how both developments affect the growth outlook, and then explore implications for equity returns and asset allocation.

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Global Retails Sales Decelerate as COVID Cases Soar

October 27, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, October 26, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global retail sales, which suggest a marked slowdown in consumption growth, owing in part to rising infection rates across advanced economies.

Our revised estimate for September shows a 1.1% month-over-month (MoM) gain as the most likely outcome, a marked slowdown versus August (see below). Retail sales likely weakened further this month, with our modelling of high frequency indicators pointing to nearly flat growth in October (+0.2% MoM). Given the increase in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, however, the full extent of the slowdown remains uncertain and the tail risk is significant as seen in the graph below.

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Betting on the South

October 23, 2020 | Articles

The October 2020 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor analyzes the attractiveness of battered LatAm and EMEA stocks amid shifting public health prospects. We find that falling infection rates and a favourable USD and commodity outlook greatly improve the relative appeal of non-Asia EM equities.
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