Articles

The November 2020 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on crude oil, covering recent market developments and discussing the oil price outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.

The November 2020 edition of our Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation and exchange rates.

No region has been as disrupted by COVID-19 as Latin America. The virus has weighted heavily on growth and equity prices, but shifting public health prospects may revert the current trend. In this special report, we discuss our latest views on LatAm equity investments. We find there is a strong case for overweight positions on 12M holdings.

The October 2020 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor focuses on the short and medium-term impact of a ‘second wave’ and of a potential stimulus bill. We first discuss how both developments affect the growth outlook, and then explore implications for equity returns and asset allocation.

The October 2020 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor analyzes the attractiveness of battered LatAm and EMEA stocks amid shifting public health prospects. We find that falling infection rates and a favourable USD and commodity outlook greatly improve the relative appeal of non-Asia EM equities.

The August 2020 edition of our Global Macro Monitor focuses on the Chinese economy and implications for commodity investments. We explore the factors behind China’s rapid bounce back, and the sustainability of the ongoing recovery. We then evaluate the appeal of new commodity investments, paying special attention to crude oil and industrial metals.

The July 2020 edition of our US Macro Monitor focuses on the factors weighing on household spending, by far the biggest drag to activity today. We examine the disrupted link between income and consumption and evaluate the role of behavioural factors. We then discuss the implications of consumption shifts for US investment strategy.

The July 2020 edition of our Global Macro Monitor focuses on the European economy. We first discuss our latest economic outlook for the region, given ongoing mobility trends. We then turn to European equities, which we have now upgraded to overweight on growth, FX, and valuation considerations.

After rising sharply in value between February and May, the US dollar has weakened considerably since early June. In this special report, we explore the likelihood of EM currencies – hugely impacted by COVID – strengthening against the dollar on a trend basis. The report complements our recent two-part feature on EM economic and financial market prospects.

The resurgence of trade tensions between the United States and China has far-reaching implications for the world economy. One major topic of debate is the impact of tariffs on US inflation, and whether the Trade War could alter the Fed’s chosen course of action. In this short research note, we explore the impact of the new round of tariffs on US PCE and PPI inflation. This is the second of a four-part focus on the US, China and Trade war…