World retail sales up 4.7% y-o-y in July, exceeding their equilibrium rate; global inflation picking up

September 29, 2017 | Articles

Real retail sales grew 4.7% year-over-year in July worldwide, maintaining the strong momentum of recent months. Retail volumes exceeded equilibrium consumption (the level of spending consistent with stable inflation) by about 0.5%, continuing to exert upward pressure on consumer prices. As expected, global inflation accelerated in July (+3.4% annualized), and in most major economies is now approaching long-term inflation expectations.

The full Global Retail Sales report from our new G2H Macro Series can be read here.

Strong demand lifts producer prices after two months of weaker growth; inflationary pressures building

September 21, 2017 | Articles

Global manufacturing production rose 4.0% year-on-year in July, the strongest increase since April 2014. Although most of the gain was explained by stronger productive capacity (potential output was up 3.0%), cyclical factors were also at play. The output gap, a measure of market tightness in the manufacturing sector, hit a 28-month high in July. Strong demand conditions fuelled an uptick in producer price inflation, which had eased in May and June as a result of weak commodity prices.

The full Global Manufacturing report from our new G2H Macro Series can be read here.

Global industrial production up 3.6% in July, supported by strong factor output; production up 3.2% after 7M

September 18, 2017 | Articles

World industrial activity continues to trend upwards, growing 3.6% year-over-year in July. Industrial production is up 3.2% after seven months, well above the 1.6% rate of growth recorded in 2016. Underlying the improvement in industrial production is stronger demand for manufactured goods, which is also contributing to higher merchandise trade flows. World manufacturing production was up 3.5% through July, with sturdy rates of growth recorded in most large economies. Perhaps the one major exception is the United States, where the pickup in activity primarily reflects a rebound in mining output (+5.6% year-to-date).

The full Industrial Production report from our new G2H Macro Series can be read here.

What is shifting oil prices?

January 8, 2017 | Articles

Contrary to popular belief, changes in oil supply are of secondary importance in explaining recent oil price developments. In this study, Numera explores how the decline has mainly been the result of unanticipated shifts in market sentiment.

Oil price shocks and the European box market

September 6, 2016 | Articles

The recent strong performance of the European corrugated market can be attributed, to a large extent, to the unanticipated sharp drop in oil prices. This is the key finding of a recent econometric analysis by Numera Analytics. Moreover, the research indicates any quick rebound in oil prices could reverse these gains, unless the price increase is mainly driven by stronger global macroeconomic conditions.

Tissue capacity expansions 2010-2016

August 3, 2016 | Articles

Numera outlines tissue capacity expansions by machine supplier from 2010-16. This research provides evidence of the increased size of tissue machines, while outlining regional variations in machine size.
To view this special research note click here.