The February 2022 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on industrial metals, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook for copper and iron ore for 2022 and 2023. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.

This month’s edition focuses on industrial metals, which continue to trade at high levels despite China’s housing crisis and manufacturing slowdown during the second half of 2021. We also discuss broad commodity dynamics, focusing on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the near-term pricing outlook. Here are the highlights of this month’s edition:

  • Overall: Geopolitical risks have pushed commodities above ‘fair’ value, reflecting fears over a disruption in energy supply. Prices should strengthen further in H1, but stabilize by year-end as speculative purchases ease. In an overheating environment, we still expect commodities to outperform global equities in 2022.
  • Industrial metals: Copper prices should weaken this year as stronger mine supply and refined production in China narrow the market deficit by around half, reducing inventory pressure. Iron ore should continue to recover in H1 on the back of strong CN steel output, but stronger supply limits its medium-term upside.


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