In the May 2021 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor, we investigate the EM equity implications of vaccine inequality. Although global ‘reflation’ benefits EM assets, stark differences in public health risks versus DMs weakens the relative appeal of EM stocks versus past reflationary episodes.
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MONTREAL, QC, May 26, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that global retail spending recovered from its second wave lull.
Global retail spending likely grew 1.2% MoM in April (+30% YoY), fueled by rising mobility and improving consumer confidence across developed markets (DMs). DM retail sales are now 4.5% higher than their pre-crisis level.
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MONTREAL, QC, May 21, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global vaccination campaigns continue to accelerate, with daily vaccinations increasing by 1.4M people per day over this past week to 0.45% of the world population. As a result, the estimated time towards 70%+ immunity is down 10% during this period to 7.3 months (end of December).
In developed markets (DMs), most of the improvement stems from the Eurozone and Canada, which over the past two weeks have vaccinated a staggering 1% of their population per day. Public health risks have eased considerably, with daily per capita case counts across DMs down 50% over the past month and 75% YTD.
The May 2021 edition of Numera Analytics’ Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation, and exchange rates.
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MONTREAL, QC, May 14, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global vaccination rates picked up last week after stalling in early May, reducing the projected time towards ‘herd’ (70%+) immunity by 9.1% to less than 9 months. In developed markets, most of the improvement stemmed from the Eurozone. Improvements in production and distribution have allowed EZ countries to double daily inoculations over the past month to 1% of the population.
Emerging markets also gained considerable ground, led a rapidly expanding vaccine coverage in China. At the current pace, public health authorities are on track to achieving their stated objective of inoculating 40% of the population by the end of June.
The May 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on crude oil, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
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MONTREAL, QC, May 7, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Worldwide vaccination rates stalled over the past week, increasing the number of months towards 70%+ immunity by 4.3% to 11 months. In developed markets, the slowdown occurred primarily in countries with high vaccine coverage, now starting to experience lower demand from the unvaccinated population.
In the US, daily vaccination rates are down 35% since mid-April, pushing back the projected timeline to 70%+ immunity by one month to mid-July. The slowdown coincides with the temporary suspension of the J&J single-dose vaccine. In other developed markets with high vaccine coverage, like Britain or Israel, the slowdown this week reflects primarily a low take-up rate among the unvaccinated population.
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MONTREAL, QC, May 4, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that global retail spending rebounded strongly in March after stalling between October and February.
Worldwide retail spending likely expanded 4.8% in March, buoyed by exceptionally strong demand for goods in the US. With last month’s gain, global retail spending is now about 3% below its pre-COVID path.
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MONTREAL, QC, April 30, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global vaccination rates accelerated over the past week, reducing the projected time towards ‘herd’ (70%) immunity by around 7% to 11 months. Virtually all of this improvement stemmed from emerging markets, where daily vaccinations rose to 12.5M inoculations (around 0.3% of the population).
In contrast, the estimated timeline for developed markets remains unchanged at 4 months, primarily owing to a 20% slowdown in the pace of inoculation in the United States, which largely reflects the temporary suspension of the single-dose J&J vaccine. Beyond the very near term, progress towards ‘herd’ immunity could face constraints by substantial vaccine hesitancy.
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MONTREAL, QC, April 29, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth resuming into the second quarter.
As we expected, worldwide production fully recovered in March (+0.8% month-over-month), reflecting stronger operating conditions in the United States, as factories and oil miners ramped up production following severe weather disruptions the previous month.