The April 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro StategistĀ focuses on the US bond market outlook as the Fed reduces liquidity support. We evaluate the attractiveness of sovereign debt as a macro hedge, assess duration plays, and evaluate the relative appeal of inflation-linked vs. nominal bonds.
The March 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro Stategist focuses on the impact of rising oil prices and Fed tightening on the US economy and stock/bond portfolios. While both factors will dent growth prospects, we believe that fears of 1970s-type stagflation remain overstated, favouring risky assets.
The February 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro Stategist focuses on two key sources of risk to the US equity outlook: a lengthy Fed tightening cycle, and a speculative spike in oil prices. We explore the implications of both shocks on recession risk, and the probability of a ābearā market.
The January 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro StategistĀ explores the factors behind the ongoing stock market sell-off, and the likelihood of a lengthy correction. Given low recession risk, investors should retain a high equity exposure, but rotate away from tech as rising yields compress valuations.
The December 2021 edition of Numeraās US Macro StategistĀ discusses our key macro assumptions for 2022, and offer a variety of investment recommendations to maximize alpha as the US economy transitions towards an overheating environment.
The November 2021 edition of Numeraās US Macro StategistĀ explores the ongoing ātransitoryā versus āpermanentā inflation debate. We find strong evidence that professional forecasters and policymakers are underestimating US inflationary risks, and therefore the path of long-term yields in 2022.
The October 2021 edition of Numeraās US Macro Stategist discusses the investment implications of a probable shift from reflation to overheating. We find strong evidence the economy could overheat in 2022, favouring value over growth and worsening the appeal of sovereign bonds as a macro hedge.
The September 2021 edition of Numeraās US Macro Stategist (formerly Monitor)Ā focuses on Fed policy, exploring the financial market implications of Fed tapering and the likelihood of a tightening cycle. We find that multiple rate hikes remains unlikely, continuing to support equity returns even as long-term yields pick up.
The August 2021 edition of Numeraās US Macro MonitorĀ investigates the economic and financial market implications of the bi-partisan Infrastructure and Jobs Act (IIJA). We find that the IIJA could lift US GDP by around 0.5%, and improve the relative appeal of equities versus fixed income holdings.
The June 2021 edition of Numeraās US Macro MonitorĀ discusses US consumption prospects, exploring the likelihood of a normalization in expenditure patterns. We then evaluate the implications of potential budget shifts for sector rotation, focusing on the relative performance of tech stocks.