Bond weakness to continue

April 26, 2022 | Articles

The April 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro StategistĀ focuses on the US bond market outlook as the Fed reduces liquidity support. We evaluate the attractiveness of sovereign debt as a macro hedge, assess duration plays, and evaluate the relative appeal of inflation-linked vs. nominal bonds.

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Not that 70s show

March 24, 2022 | Articles

The March 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro Stategist focuses on the impact of rising oil prices and Fed tightening on the US economy and stock/bond portfolios. While both factors will dent growth prospects, we believe that fears of 1970s-type stagflation remain overstated, favouring risky assets.

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Fed wants to avoid repeat of 1970s

March 1, 2022 | Articles

The February 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro Stategist focuses on two key sources of risk to the US equity outlook: a lengthy Fed tightening cycle, and a speculative spike in oil prices. We explore the implications of both shocks on recession risk, and the probability of a ā€˜bearā€™ market.

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Is 2022 the new 2001?

January 31, 2022 | Articles

The January 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro StategistĀ explores the factors behind the ongoing stock market sell-off, and the likelihood of a lengthy correction. Given low recession risk, investors should retain a high equity exposure, but rotate away from tech as rising yields compress valuations.

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Will the US equity rally end in 2022?

December 21, 2021 | Articles

The December 2021 edition of Numeraā€™s US Macro StategistĀ discusses our key macro assumptions for 2022, and offer a variety of investment recommendations to maximize alpha as the US economy transitions towards an overheating environment.

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Is the Fed right about inflation?

November 30, 2021 | Articles

The November 2021 edition of Numeraā€™s US Macro StategistĀ explores the ongoing ā€˜transitoryā€™ versus ā€˜permanentā€™ inflation debate. We find strong evidence that professional forecasters and policymakers are underestimating US inflationary risks, and therefore the path of long-term yields in 2022.

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From reflation to overheating

November 4, 2021 | Articles

The October 2021 edition of Numeraā€™s US Macro Stategist discusses the investment implications of a probable shift from reflation to overheating. We find strong evidence the economy could overheat in 2022, favouring value over growth and worsening the appeal of sovereign bonds as a macro hedge.

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Taper tension

October 5, 2021 | Articles

The September 2021 edition of Numeraā€™s US Macro Stategist (formerly Monitor)Ā focuses on Fed policy, exploring the financial market implications of Fed tapering and the likelihood of a tightening cycle. We find that multiple rate hikes remains unlikely, continuing to support equity returns even as long-term yields pick up.

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