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Press

Retail spending weakened in mid-2021

September 1, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, September 1, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which confirms global goods consumption weakened in mid-2021.

The slowdown primarily reflects a normalization of expenditure patterns in the United States, where households are allocating a greater portion of their disposable income to contact services. This ‘substitution’ effect is still not visible in EMs, where retail spending continued to recover on the back of stronger away-from-home traffic.

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Production recovering amid Delta concerns

August 26, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, August 26, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which shows global production continues to recover despite rising concerns about the Delta wave of COVID infections.

Worldwide industrial output rose 0.9% month-over-month in June after a tightening of restrictions in Asia caused global output losses of 0.3% the previous month. The June gain pushed industrial production to just 0.6% below its pre-pandemic path. This compares to a manufacturing output gap of 1.5%. The difference reflects subdued mining activity, with global crude oil production only starting to strengthen in late June.

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Manufacturing resilient to Delta

August 25, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, August 25, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals manufacturing output remains resilient to the Delta wave of infections.

After contracting 0.8% month-over-month in May, global factory output rebounded in June, rising 1.1%. Inflationary pressures eased somewhat in June, but remain elevated by historical standards. Global PPI inflation came in at 11% annualized, versus 20%+ over the 3 previous months.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: EZ continues to lead the way

August 6, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, August 6, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Apart from the stalled vaccination campaign in the US, developed markets are still making headway towards ‘herd’ immunity. While the projected time for the US remains above 4.5 months, other DMs have cut back the projected timeline by 10% this past week to 1.2 months. Elsewhere, fears over the Delta variant are causing vaccination campaigns to accelerate, with significant progress recorded in most major emerging economies.

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Spending on goods weakens

August 3, 2021 | Press

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MONTREAL, QC, August 3, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that global retail spending weakened from its April peak.

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Global industrial output slowing into H2

August 2, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, August 2, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth slowing into the second half.

Industrial production contracted 0.7% in May, primarily owing to substitution away from goods and towards contact services. In addition, demand for capital goods has started to weaken given an already very high investment share of GDP. High-frequency data points to a partial recovery in June and July, partly on the back of a ~6% increase in crude oil production in OPEC+ countries.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Delta revitalizes campaigns

July 30, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, July 30, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination rates picked up this past week amid a growing sense of urgency to minimize the impact of the highly infectious Delta variant. At the current pace of inoculation, the world is now 3.5 months away from surpassing the 70%+ immunity threshold. Most major economies cut back their projected timeline by double digits, led by 30%+ gains in Canada and China (now less than one month away from the 70% threshold).

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Global manufacturing normalizing

July 27, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, July 27, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals manufacturing output is normalizing into mid-2021.

Worldwide factory output fell 1% in May, with production edging down in most region, owing to new COVID outbreaks and substitution towards contact services in countries with a high vaccine coverage. Despite weakening demand, inflationary pressures continued to build, with elevated commodity inflation lifting global producer prices by a staggering 21% SAAR in May. Our latest estimates point to growth resuming at a moderate pace in June and July, with the overall output gap remaining positive but stable.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: The race against Delta

July 23, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, July 23, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

The advent of the Delta COVID variant is creating a renewed sense of urgency around the speed of vaccination campaigns. Clinical and epidemiological data reveals Delta is much more transmissible than previous mutations, and explains the bulk of new COVID cases in Europe and Asia. The highly infectious nature of the Delta variant means countries with low vaccination rates could experience a much more disruptive ‘third’ wave.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: A mixed bag

July 16, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, July 16, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination campaigns have stalled in July, primarily owing to a slower pace of inoculation in emerging economies. At current rates of vaccination, the world should attain 70%+ immunity by the end of November. Importantly, the global average hides considerable heterogeneity by region. While developed markets should surpass the 70% immunity threshold in less than two months, emerging markets will only achieve that objective by year-end.

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