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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: A break-through month

June 4, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 4, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Since early May, improvements in vaccine distribution have significantly cut back projected times towards herd immunity. In only four weeks, daily inoculation rates have doubled to 0.6% of the global population, reducing the timeline towards 70%+ immunity by 5M.

Much of this progress stems from emerging markets, led by an extremely rapid rollout in China. In developed markets, accelerating vaccinations in Europe and Canada offset a weakening take-up rate in the US.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Six months to normality

May 28, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 28, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination rates accelerated further this past week, cutting back the estimated time towards 70%+ immunity by 11% to six months. Despite falling US vaccinations, developed markets as a whole maintained a steady pace of inoculations, owing to strong demand for initial doses in Europe and Canada.

In EMs, a rapid vaccine rollout in China allowed EMs to reduce the projected time towards 70% immunity by four weeks to 7 months. The EM aggregate remains weighed down by India, where production backlogs have resulted in a near 50% decline in the daily pace of vaccinations over the past month.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Developed market health risks easing

May 21, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 21, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination campaigns continue to accelerate, with daily vaccinations increasing by 1.4M people per day over this past week to 0.45% of the world population. As a result, the estimated time towards 70%+ immunity is down 10% during this period to 7.3 months (end of December).

In developed markets (DMs), most of the improvement stems from the Eurozone and Canada, which over the past two weeks have vaccinated a staggering 1% of their population per day. Public health risks have eased considerably, with daily per capita case counts across DMs down 50% over the past month and 75% YTD.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: The Eurozone awakens

May 14, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 14, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination rates picked up last week after stalling in early May, reducing the projected time towards ‘herd’ (70%+) immunity by 9.1% to less than 9 months. In developed markets, most of the improvement stemmed from the Eurozone. Improvements in production and distribution have allowed EZ countries to double daily inoculations over the past month to 1% of the population.

Emerging markets also gained considerable ground, led a rapidly expanding vaccine coverage in China. At the current pace, public health authorities are on track to achieving their stated objective of inoculating 40% of the population by the end of June.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Hesitancy pushes back immunity timeline

May 7, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 7, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Worldwide vaccination rates stalled over the past week, increasing the number of months towards 70%+ immunity by 4.3% to 11 months. In developed markets, the slowdown occurred primarily in countries with high vaccine coverage, now starting to experience lower demand from the unvaccinated population.

In the US, daily vaccination rates are down 35% since mid-April, pushing back the projected timeline to 70%+ immunity by one month to mid-July. The slowdown coincides with the temporary suspension of the J&J single-dose vaccine. In other developed markets with high vaccine coverage, like Britain or Israel, the slowdown this week reflects primarily a low take-up rate among the unvaccinated population.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: DM progress stalls temporarily

April 30, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, April 30, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination rates accelerated over the past week, reducing the projected time towards ‘herd’ (70%) immunity by around 7% to 11 months. Virtually all of this improvement stemmed from emerging markets, where daily vaccinations rose to 12.5M inoculations (around 0.3% of the population).

In contrast, the estimated timeline for developed markets remains unchanged at 4 months, primarily owing to a 20% slowdown in the pace of inoculation in the United States, which largely reflects the temporary suspension of the single-dose J&J vaccine. Beyond the very near term, progress towards ‘herd’ immunity could face constraints by substantial vaccine hesitancy.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Vaccine progress stalls

April 23, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, April 23, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global progress towards ‘herd’ immunity stalled this past week, primarily owing to a reduced pace of vaccinations in emerging economies. The expected time towards 70% immunity rose by nearly 2% worldwide to 13 months, as inoculation rates stalled in East Asia and parts of Latin America.

The rate of progress in developed markets also softened, especially in countries with already high vaccine coverage. Our latest estimates suggest that DMs could reach herd immunity in about 4 months. The EM slowdown reflects both production constraints (e.g. in India) or difficulties in securing imported doses. In DMs, on the other hand, the weaker pace of growth reflects growing vaccine ‘hesitancy’, in part owing to safety concerns over non-mRNA doses.

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Introducing Numera Analytics’s herd immunity tracker

April 16, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, April 16, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the first edition of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Joaquin Kritz Lara, Numera’s head of Macro Research, commented on this new weekly report: “Since most remaining economic losses worldwide are concentrated in contact services, tracking progress towards immunity is of crucial importance in predicting the speed and scope of recovery. Our goal with this weekly update is to provide the ‘what if’ of ongoing vaccination campaigns”.

Daily global vaccinations accelerated further last week, cutting the time towards herd immunity by around 6%. At current vaccination rates, the world is one year away from reaching the 70% immunity threshold. Progress is much greater in developed markets, where rapid rollouts since March have dramatically reduced the number of months until normality. Our latest estimates suggest that developed markets as a whole could reach herd immunity in 4.3 months.

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