MONTREAL, QC, April 30, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination rates accelerated over the past week, reducing the projected time towards ‘herd’ (70%) immunity by around 7% to 11 months. Virtually all of this improvement stemmed from emerging markets, where daily vaccinations rose to 12.5M inoculations (around 0.3% of the population).

In contrast, the estimated timeline for developed markets remains unchanged at 4 months, primarily owing to a 20% slowdown in the pace of inoculation in the United States, which largely reflects the temporary suspension of the single-dose J&J vaccine. Beyond the very near term, progress towards ‘herd’ immunity could face constraints by substantial vaccine hesitancy.


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