The April 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro StategistĀ focuses on the US bond market outlook as the Fed reduces liquidity support. We evaluate the attractiveness of sovereign debt as a macro hedge, assess duration plays, and evaluate the relative appeal of inflation-linked vs. nominal bonds.
The March 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro Stategist focuses on the impact of rising oil prices and Fed tightening on the US economy and stock/bond portfolios. While both factors will dent growth prospects, we believe that fears of 1970s-type stagflation remain overstated, favouring risky assets.
The February 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro Stategist focuses on two key sources of risk to the US equity outlook: a lengthy Fed tightening cycle, and a speculative spike in oil prices. We explore the implications of both shocks on recession risk, and the probability of a ābearā market.
The January 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro StategistĀ explores the factors behind the ongoing stock market sell-off, and the likelihood of a lengthy correction. Given low recession risk, investors should retain a high equity exposure, but rotate away from tech as rising yields compress valuations.
The January 2022 edition of ourĀ Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation, and exchange rates.
The December 2021 edition of Numeraās US Macro StategistĀ discusses our key macro assumptions for 2022, and offer a variety of investment recommendations to maximize alpha as the US economy transitions towards an overheating environment.