Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Developed market health risks easing

May 21, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 21, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination campaigns continue to accelerate, with daily vaccinations increasing by 1.4M people per day over this past week to 0.45% of the world population. As a result, the estimated time towards 70%+ immunity is down 10% during this period to 7.3 months (end of December).

In developed markets (DMs), most of the improvement stems from the Eurozone and Canada, which over the past two weeks have vaccinated a staggering 1% of their population per day. Public health risks have eased considerably, with daily per capita case counts across DMs down 50% over the past month and 75% YTD.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: The Eurozone awakens

May 14, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 14, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination rates picked up last week after stalling in early May, reducing the projected time towards ‘herd’ (70%+) immunity by 9.1% to less than 9 months. In developed markets, most of the improvement stemmed from the Eurozone. Improvements in production and distribution have allowed EZ countries to double daily inoculations over the past month to 1% of the population.

Emerging markets also gained considerable ground, led a rapidly expanding vaccine coverage in China. At the current pace, public health authorities are on track to achieving their stated objective of inoculating 40% of the population by the end of June.

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Pause button on US dollar slide

April 29, 2021 | Articles

In the April 2021 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor, we explore the factors behind the US dollar’s partial recovery in early 2021 and the likelihood of a reversal in last year’s trend. We believe a period of sustained USD appreciation is unlikely, improving the upside for EM and commodity investments.

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Global manufacturing recovered in March

April 27, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, April 27, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals factory output recovered in March as US factories normalized operating following severe winter storms in February.

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What is behind China’s equity sell-off

March 30, 2021 | Articles

In the March 2021 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor, we discuss China’s economic outlook and the factors behind the ongoing CN equity sell-off. We find that the correction realigns stocks with macro fundamentals, which in a context of strong global growth limits tail risk on new investments. Read More

Temporary pullback in world manufacturing output

March 29, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, March 29, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals factory output experienced a pullback in early 2021, which we expect to be temporary.

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World manufacturing continues to expand in early 2021

February 25, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, February 25, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals factory output continues to expand well above trend despite very low away-from-home traffic.

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