The May 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on crude oil, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
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MONTREAL, QC, May 7, 2021 (Press Release) â Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Worldwide vaccination rates stalled over the past week, increasing the number of months towards 70%+ immunity by 4.3% to 11 months. In developed markets, the slowdown occurred primarily in countries with high vaccine coverage, now starting to experience lower demand from the unvaccinated population.
In the US, daily vaccination rates are down 35% since mid-April, pushing back the projected timeline to 70%+ immunity by one month to mid-July. The slowdown coincides with the temporary suspension of the J&J single-dose vaccine. In other developed markets with high vaccine coverage, like Britain or Israel, the slowdown this week reflects primarily a low take-up rate among the unvaccinated population.
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MONTREAL, QC, May 4, 2021 (Press Release) â Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that global retail spending rebounded strongly in March after stalling between October and February.
Worldwide retail spending likely expanded 4.8% in March, buoyed by exceptionally strong demand for goods in the US. With last monthâs gain, global retail spending is now about 3% below its pre-COVID path.
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MONTREAL, QC, April 30, 2021 (Press Release) â Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global vaccination rates accelerated over the past week, reducing the projected time towards âherdâ (70%) immunity by around 7% to 11 months. Virtually all of this improvement stemmed from emerging markets, where daily vaccinations rose to 12.5M inoculations (around 0.3% of the population).
In contrast, the estimated timeline for developed markets remains unchanged at 4 months, primarily owing to a 20% slowdown in the pace of inoculation in the United States, which largely reflects the temporary suspension of the single-dose J&J vaccine. Beyond the very near term, progress towards âherdâ immunity could face constraints by substantial vaccine hesitancy.
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MONTREAL, QC, April 29, 2021 (Press Release) â Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth resuming into the second quarter.
As we expected, worldwide production fully recovered in March (+0.8% month-over-month), reflecting stronger operating conditions in the United States, as factories and oil miners ramped up production following severe weather disruptions the previous month.
In the April 2021 edition of Numeraâs Global Macro Monitor, we explore the factors behind the US dollarâs partial recovery in early 2021 and the likelihood of a reversal in last yearâs trend. We believe a period of sustained USD appreciation is unlikely, improving the upside for EM and commodity investments.
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MONTREAL, QC, April 27, 2021 (Press Release) â Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals factory output recovered in March as US factories normalized operating following severe winter storms in February.
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MONTREAL, QC, April 23, 2021 (Press Release) â Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global progress towards âherdâ immunity stalled this past week, primarily owing to a reduced pace of vaccinations in emerging economies. The expected time towards 70% immunity rose by nearly 2% worldwide to 13 months, as inoculation rates stalled in East Asia and parts of Latin America.
The rate of progress in developed markets also softened, especially in countries with already high vaccine coverage. Our latest estimates suggest that DMs could reach herd immunity in about 4 months. The EM slowdown reflects both production constraints (e.g. in India) or difficulties in securing imported doses. In DMs, on the other hand, the weaker pace of growth reflects growing vaccine âhesitancyâ, in part owing to safety concerns over non-mRNA doses.
The April 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on base metals and iron ore, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
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MONTREAL, QC, April 16, 2021 (Press Release) â Numera today released the first edition of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Joaquin Kritz Lara, Numeraâs head of Macro Research, commented on this new weekly report: âSince most remaining economic losses worldwide are concentrated in contact services, tracking progress towards immunity is of crucial importance in predicting the speed and scope of recovery. Our goal with this weekly update is to provide the âwhat ifâ of ongoing vaccination campaignsâ.
Daily global vaccinations accelerated further last week, cutting the time towards herd immunity by around 6%. At current vaccination rates, the world is one year away from reaching the 70% immunity threshold. Progress is much greater in developed markets, where rapid rollouts since March have dramatically reduced the number of months until normality. Our latest estimates suggest that developed markets as a whole could reach herd immunity in 4.3 months.