In the April 2021 edition of Numeraâs Global Macro Monitor, we explore the factors behind the US dollarâs partial recovery in early 2021 and the likelihood of a reversal in last yearâs trend. We believe a period of sustained USD appreciation is unlikely, improving the upside for EM and commodity investments.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
MONTREAL, QC, April 27, 2021 (Press Release) â Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals factory output recovered in March as US factories normalized operating following severe winter storms in February.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
MONTREAL, QC, April 23, 2021 (Press Release) â Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global progress towards âherdâ immunity stalled this past week, primarily owing to a reduced pace of vaccinations in emerging economies. The expected time towards 70% immunity rose by nearly 2% worldwide to 13 months, as inoculation rates stalled in East Asia and parts of Latin America.
The rate of progress in developed markets also softened, especially in countries with already high vaccine coverage. Our latest estimates suggest that DMs could reach herd immunity in about 4 months. The EM slowdown reflects both production constraints (e.g. in India) or difficulties in securing imported doses. In DMs, on the other hand, the weaker pace of growth reflects growing vaccine âhesitancyâ, in part owing to safety concerns over non-mRNA doses.
The April 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on base metals and iron ore, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
MONTREAL, QC, April 16, 2021 (Press Release) â Numera today released the first edition of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Joaquin Kritz Lara, Numeraâs head of Macro Research, commented on this new weekly report: âSince most remaining economic losses worldwide are concentrated in contact services, tracking progress towards immunity is of crucial importance in predicting the speed and scope of recovery. Our goal with this weekly update is to provide the âwhat ifâ of ongoing vaccination campaignsâ.
Daily global vaccinations accelerated further last week, cutting the time towards herd immunity by around 6%. At current vaccination rates, the world is one year away from reaching the 70% immunity threshold. Progress is much greater in developed markets, where rapid rollouts since March have dramatically reduced the number of months until normality. Our latest estimates suggest that developed markets as a whole could reach herd immunity in 4.3 months.
The April 2021 edition of Numera Analytics’ Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation, and exchange rates.Â
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
MONTREAL, QC, April 8, 2021 (Press Release) â Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that global retail spending continued to weaken in Q1 after peaking last October.
Real retail sales edged up 0.8% in January, trailing expectations. The underperformance primarily stemmed from emerging markets, where retail traffic fell 7% in January amid a surge in COVID cases.
The March 2021 edition of Numeraâs US Macro Monitor explores the factors behind the surge in long-term Treasury yields and its implications for US investment strategy. We find that the increase primarily reflects stronger growth prospects, which improves the relative appeal of US equity holdings.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
MONTREAL, QC, March 31, 2021 (Press Release) â Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to weakening production in early 2021.
Our revised estimate for February reveals a 1% drop versus January, mainly due to reduced production amid severe winter storms in the US South. The February weather shock pushes world industrial activity 1.8% below its pre-COVID path.
In the March 2021 edition of Numeraâs Global Macro Monitor, we discuss Chinaâs economic outlook and the factors behind the ongoing CN equity sell-off. We find that the correction realigns stocks with macro fundamentals, which in a context of strong global growth limits tail risk on new investments. Read More