The July 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on base metals and iron ore, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
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MONTREAL, QC, July 16, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global vaccination campaigns have stalled in July, primarily owing to a slower pace of inoculation in emerging economies. At current rates of vaccination, the world should attain 70%+ immunity by the end of November. Importantly, the global average hides considerable heterogeneity by region. While developed markets should surpass the 70% immunity threshold in less than two months, emerging markets will only achieve that objective by year-end.
The July 2021 edition of Numera Analytics’ Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation, and exchange rates.
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MONTREAL, QC, July 9, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global vaccination campaigns stalled over the past week, increasing the projected time towards 70%+ immunity by 5.2% to 4 months. Importantly, all of the slowdown stemmed from emerging markets, where the vaccination rate stalled after two months of near-continuous improvements. In contrast, developed market maintained their daily pace of inoculations steady at 1.3 doses per hundred people, cutting back the projected timeline by 6.7% to two months.
The June 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor discusses US consumption prospects, exploring the likelihood of a normalization in expenditure patterns. We then evaluate the implications of potential budget shifts for sector rotation, focusing on the relative performance of tech stocks.
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MONTREAL, QC, July 2, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global vaccination campaigns accelerated further this past week, reducing the projected timeline towards 70%+ immunity by 5% to 3.4 months. Most of the improvement stemmed from DMs, led by impressive vaccination runs in the EZ and Canada. After a slow initial rollout, Canada now boasts the highest initial vaccine coverage across DMs. At the current pace of inoculation, Canada should surpass the 70% threshold in less than one month, faster than any other major economy.
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MONTREAL, QC, July 2, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which points to global goods consumption growth easing into H2.
Numera’s advance estimates for global retail sales for May and June suggest spending on goods weakened from its reopening high in April. In a context of strong consumer confidence and high excess savings, the May drop primarily reflects substitution away from goods and towards previously unavailable services.
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MONTREAL, QC, June 30, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth normalizing into the second half.
Global industrial production should continue to benefit from unusually strong business investment, driven by low borrowing costs and further declines in economic uncertainty. Moreover, unlike manufacturing activity, falling public health risks should help boost mining activity and crude oil production.
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MONTREAL, QC, June 29, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals manufacturing output continued to expand into the second quarter.
Global manufacturing activity grew 3.5% annualized in H1, well above its long-term trend but not enough to satisfy booming demand for both consumer and investment goods. Capacity constraints have caused a run-up in global producer prices, up 14% annualized in April. Rising mobility should cause expenditure patterns to normalize over the next 12M, thereby reducing pressure on global supply chains
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MONTREAL, QC, June 25, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global vaccination rates continued to accelerate this past week, cutting back the estimated time towards 70%+ immunity by 12% to 3.8 months. With DMs now exceeding a 50% coverage on initial doses, much of the improvement stemmed from EMs – where a much lower coverage translates into higher initial take-up rates. At the current pace of inoculation, EMs should surpass the 70% immunity threshold in 4.3 months.