Is the Fed right about inflation?
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Numera Analytics

Nov 30

Is the Fed right about inflation?

By Articles
The November 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Stategist explores the ongoing ‘transitory’ versus ‘permanent’ inflation debate. We find strong evidence that professional forecasters and policymakers are underestimating US inflationary risks, and therefore the path of long-term yields in 2022.
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Nov 18

EMs still risky bet for 2022

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The November 2021 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Strategist explores the case for an increased EM exposure in global portfolios in 2022. Although EM assets are trading at a discount, we find global and domestic macro forces weaken the relative appeal of most EM investments.
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Nov 11

Oil rally maxing out

By Articles
The November 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook report focuses on crude oil, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
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Nov 09

Central banks at a crossroads

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The November 2021 edition of Numera Analytics' Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation and exchange rates.
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Nov 04

From reflation to overheating

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The October 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Stategist discusses the investment implications of a probable shift from reflation to overheating. We find strong evidence the economy could overheat in 2022, favouring value over growth and worsening the appeal of sovereign bonds as a macro hedge.
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Oct 21

Will energy shortages derail growth?

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The October 2021 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Strategist explores the factors behind soaring global energy costs, and investigate the implications of power shortages for the global growth outlook. We also discuss implications for commodity investments and energy exporters.
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Oct 14

Copper at a turning point

By Articles
The October 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook report focuses on industrial metals, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook for copper and iron ore over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
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Oct 05

Taper tension

By Articles
The September 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Stategist (formerly Monitor) focuses on Fed policy, exploring the financial market implications of Fed tapering and the likelihood of a tightening cycle. We find that multiple rate hikes remains unlikely, continuing to support equity returns even as long-term yields pick up.
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