Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Canada leads the way

July 2, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, July 2, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination campaigns accelerated further this past week, reducing the projected timeline towards 70%+ immunity by 5% to 3.4 months. Most of the improvement stemmed from DMs, led by impressive vaccination runs in the EZ and Canada. After a slow initial rollout, Canada now boasts the highest initial vaccine coverage across DMs. At the current pace of inoculation, Canada should surpass the 70% threshold in less than one month, faster than any other major economy.

Read More

Growth in manufacturing output eased in H1

June 29, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 29, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals manufacturing output continued to expand into the second quarter.

Global manufacturing activity grew 3.5% annualized in H1, well above its long-term trend but not enough to satisfy booming demand for both consumer and investment goods. Capacity constraints have caused a run-up in global producer prices, up 14% annualized in April. Rising mobility should cause expenditure patterns to normalize over the next 12M, thereby reducing pressure on global supply chains

Read More

Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Emerging markets catching up

June 25, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 25, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination rates continued to accelerate this past week, cutting back the estimated time towards 70%+ immunity by 12% to 3.8 months. With DMs now exceeding a 50% coverage on initial doses, much of the improvement stemmed from EMs – where a much lower coverage translates into higher initial take-up rates. At the current pace of inoculation, EMs should surpass the 70% immunity threshold in 4.3 months.

Read More

Europe’s time to shine

June 23, 2021 | Articles

The June 2021 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor focuses on the Euro area, discussing EZ growth prospects and the regional investment outlook. Unlike past recessions, Europe should experience a sustained equity rally, underpinned by rapidly improving confidence and a strong Euro.

Read More

Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Developed market progress continues

June 18, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 18, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination campaigns accelerated further this past week, reducing the projected timeline towards 70%+ immunity by 5% to 4.7 months. Once again, much of this progress stemmed from developed markets, which are now inoculating a record 8M people per day. Developed markets have administered an initial dose to 46% of their populations, with consistent improvements in the initial take-up rate in most major economies excluding the United States.

Read More

Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: An impressive 6-month run

June 11, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 11, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

This week marked the 6-month anniversary since the official start of COVID vaccination campaigns. During this period, the world has administered a staggering 2.2 billion doses, with near-consistent improvements in the global pace of inoculation. At the current rate, the world should surpass the 70% immunity threshold in less than 5 months, versus a 14-month timeline merely two months ago.

Read More

Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: A break-through month

June 4, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 4, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Since early May, improvements in vaccine distribution have significantly cut back projected times towards herd immunity. In only four weeks, daily inoculation rates have doubled to 0.6% of the global population, reducing the timeline towards 70%+ immunity by 5M.

Much of this progress stems from emerging markets, led by an extremely rapid rollout in China. In developed markets, accelerating vaccinations in Europe and Canada offset a weakening take-up rate in the US.

Read More

Global manufacturing growth continued in Q2

May 31, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 31, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals manufacturing output continued to expand into the second quarter.  Read More

Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Six months to normality

May 28, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, May 28, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination rates accelerated further this past week, cutting back the estimated time towards 70%+ immunity by 11% to six months. Despite falling US vaccinations, developed markets as a whole maintained a steady pace of inoculations, owing to strong demand for initial doses in Europe and Canada.

In EMs, a rapid vaccine rollout in China allowed EMs to reduce the projected time towards 70% immunity by four weeks to 7 months. The EM aggregate remains weighed down by India, where production backlogs have resulted in a near 50% decline in the daily pace of vaccinations over the past month.

Read More

Low mobility weighing on returns

May 27, 2021 | Articles

In the May 2021 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor, we investigate the EM equity implications of vaccine inequality. Although global ‘reflation’ benefits EM assets, stark differences in public health risks versus DMs weakens the relative appeal of EM stocks versus past reflationary episodes.

Read More