The December 2021 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Strategist offers a roadmap to navigate global financial markets in 2022. We first present our key macro predictions for next year, and then discuss how to adapt portfolios to a less favourable global landscape..
The October 2021 edition of Numera Analytics’ Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation, and exchange rates.
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MONTREAL, QC, August 25, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals manufacturing output remains resilient to the Delta wave of infections.
After contracting 0.8% month-over-month in May, global factory output rebounded in June, rising 1.1%. Inflationary pressures eased somewhat in June, but remain elevated by historical standards. Global PPI inflation came in at 11% annualized, versus 20%+ over the 3 previous months.
The August 2021 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor discusses the factors behind China’s ongoing equity market sell-off. We explore the impact of macro forces and antitrust legislation on recent market performance, and evaluate the attractiveness of CN equity investments over the coming year.
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MONTREAL, QC, August 6, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Apart from the stalled vaccination campaign in the US, developed markets are still making headway towards ‘herd’ immunity. While the projected time for the US remains above 4.5 months, other DMs have cut back the projected timeline by 10% this past week to 1.2 months. Elsewhere, fears over the Delta variant are causing vaccination campaigns to accelerate, with significant progress recorded in most major emerging economies.
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MONTREAL, QC, July 30, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global vaccination rates picked up this past week amid a growing sense of urgency to minimize the impact of the highly infectious Delta variant. At the current pace of inoculation, the world is now 3.5 months away from surpassing the 70%+ immunity threshold. Most major economies cut back their projected timeline by double digits, led by 30%+ gains in Canada and China (now less than one month away from the 70% threshold).
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MONTREAL, QC, July 27, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals manufacturing output is normalizing into mid-2021.
Worldwide factory output fell 1% in May, with production edging down in most region, owing to new COVID outbreaks and substitution towards contact services in countries with a high vaccine coverage. Despite weakening demand, inflationary pressures continued to build, with elevated commodity inflation lifting global producer prices by a staggering 21% SAAR in May. Our latest estimates point to growth resuming at a moderate pace in June and July, with the overall output gap remaining positive but stable.
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MONTREAL, QC, July 23, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
The advent of the Delta COVID variant is creating a renewed sense of urgency around the speed of vaccination campaigns. Clinical and epidemiological data reveals Delta is much more transmissible than previous mutations, and explains the bulk of new COVID cases in Europe and Asia. The highly infectious nature of the Delta variant means countries with low vaccination rates could experience a much more disruptive ‘third’ wave.
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MONTREAL, QC, July 16, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global vaccination campaigns have stalled in July, primarily owing to a slower pace of inoculation in emerging economies. At current rates of vaccination, the world should attain 70%+ immunity by the end of November. Importantly, the global average hides considerable heterogeneity by region. While developed markets should surpass the 70% immunity threshold in less than two months, emerging markets will only achieve that objective by year-end.
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MONTREAL, QC, July 9, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global vaccination campaigns stalled over the past week, increasing the projected time towards 70%+ immunity by 5.2% to 4 months. Importantly, all of the slowdown stemmed from emerging markets, where the vaccination rate stalled after two months of near-continuous improvements. In contrast, developed market maintained their daily pace of inoculations steady at 1.3 doses per hundred people, cutting back the projected timeline by 6.7% to two months.