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Recovery in Global Industrial Production Slows

October 22, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, October 21, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates of global industrial production for October, which suggest that growth has come to a near standstill. Our revised estimate for September reveals worldwide production last month expanded just 0.1% month-over-month (MoM), and was still 3.5% below its year-ago level. We expect this trend to continue this month. Our modelling of high-frequency data points to a gain of only 0.1% MoM as the most likely outcome for October, and roughly a 40% chance of contraction.
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Growth in Global Manufacturing has Stalled

October 21, 2020 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, October 20, 2020 (Press Release) – Numera today released its advance estimates for global manufacturing in October, which support the view that the recovery has likely stalled. Our revised estimate for September shows growth slowed to +0.3% month-over-month (MoM) after several months of above-trend gains driven by the lifting of lockdown measures. Our advance estimate for October indicates a further slowdown to just +0.1%, and importantly, a 40% probability that final numbers could show an outright decline.
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A bull in a China shop

August 18, 2020 | Articles

The August 2020 edition of our Global Macro Monitor focuses on the Chinese economy and implications for commodity investments. We explore the factors behind China’s rapid bounce back, and the sustainability of the ongoing recovery. We then evaluate the appeal of new commodity investments, paying special attention to crude oil and industrial metals.

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The Stimulus Spending Puzzle

July 30, 2020 | Articles

The July 2020 edition of our US Macro Monitor focuses on the factors weighing on household spending, by far the biggest drag to activity today. We examine the disrupted link between income and consumption and evaluate the role of behavioural factors. We then discuss the implications of consumption shifts for US investment strategy.

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Europe Rises From the Ashes

July 16, 2020 | Articles

The July 2020 edition of our Global Macro Monitor focuses on the European economy. We first discuss our latest economic outlook for the region, given ongoing mobility trends. We then turn to European equities, which we have now upgraded to overweight on growth, FX, and valuation considerations.

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Will EM currencies finally recover?

June 10, 2020 | Articles

After rising sharply in value between February and May, the US dollar has weakened considerably since early June. In this special report, we explore the likelihood of EM currencies – hugely impacted by COVID – strengthening against the dollar on a trend basis. The report complements our recent two-part feature on EM economic and financial market prospects.

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Webinar – Numera’s Macro Outlook 2020

October 4, 2019 | Events

Our Industrial sector diffusion index has been flashing major decoupling with the broad economy for some time now. Although, the most likely outcome for the US is still positive growth, risks have markedly increased over the last quarter. Recession risk has jumped 24 points to 42% for 2020, the highest level since 2008.

Join Joaquin Kritz Lara, Numera Analytics’ Head of Macro Research, on Wednesday, October 9th at 11:00 am EDT, as he discusses how macro risks influence asset returns, and how to adjust your portfolio moving into 2020. Click here to register to our webinar.

Trade tensions between the United States and China

The Resurgence of Trade Tensions Between the United States and China

May 29, 2019 | Articles

The resurgence of trade tensions between the United States and China has far-reaching implications for the world economy. One major topic of debate is the impact of tariffs on US inflation, and whether the Trade War could alter the Fed’s chosen course of action. In this short research note, we explore the impact of the new round of tariffs on US PCE and PPI inflation. This is the second of a four-part focus on the US, China and Trade war implications.

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Webinar – Corrugated Packaging Trends in the U.S. and Europe

March 14, 2019 | Events

Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar regarding key issues facing corrugated packaging markets, with a focus on North America and Europe. Numera’s David Vallières along with VRP’s Chip Dillon and Bloomberg’s Joshua Zaret will discuss the supply/demand and pricing outlook in North America, new/projected capacity additions, secular demand sources, as well as China’s wastepaper import restrictions and what they mean for US containerboard producers.

To participate in this webinar taking place on Thursday, April 4th, 2019, 10:00 AM EDT, please register here.