The August 2021 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor discusses the factors behind China’s ongoing equity market sell-off. We explore the impact of macro forces and antitrust legislation on recent market performance, and evaluate the attractiveness of CN equity investments over the coming year.
The August 2021 edition of Numera Analytics’ Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation and exchange rates.
The August 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on crude oil, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
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MONTREAL, QC, August 6, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Apart from the stalled vaccination campaign in the US, developed markets are still making headway towards ‘herd’ immunity. While the projected time for the US remains above 4.5 months, other DMs have cut back the projected timeline by 10% this past week to 1.2 months. Elsewhere, fears over the Delta variant are causing vaccination campaigns to accelerate, with significant progress recorded in most major emerging economies.
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MONTREAL, QC, August 3, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which suggests that global retail spending weakened from its April peak.
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MONTREAL, QC, August 2, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth slowing into the second half.
Industrial production contracted 0.7% in May, primarily owing to substitution away from goods and towards contact services. In addition, demand for capital goods has started to weaken given an already very high investment share of GDP. High-frequency data points to a partial recovery in June and July, partly on the back of a ~6% increase in crude oil production in OPEC+ countries.
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MONTREAL, QC, July 30, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
Global vaccination rates picked up this past week amid a growing sense of urgency to minimize the impact of the highly infectious Delta variant. At the current pace of inoculation, the world is now 3.5 months away from surpassing the 70%+ immunity threshold. Most major economies cut back their projected timeline by double digits, led by 30%+ gains in Canada and China (now less than one month away from the 70% threshold).
The July 2021 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor focuses on LatAm stocks, which continue to underperform despite exceptional international conditions. We explore the factors currently weighing on returns, and evaluate the attractiveness of new investments over the coming year.
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MONTREAL, QC, July 27, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals manufacturing output is normalizing into mid-2021.
Worldwide factory output fell 1% in May, with production edging down in most region, owing to new COVID outbreaks and substitution towards contact services in countries with a high vaccine coverage. Despite weakening demand, inflationary pressures continued to build, with elevated commodity inflation lifting global producer prices by a staggering 21% SAAR in May. Our latest estimates point to growth resuming at a moderate pace in June and July, with the overall output gap remaining positive but stable.
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MONTREAL, QC, July 23, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.
The advent of the Delta COVID variant is creating a renewed sense of urgency around the speed of vaccination campaigns. Clinical and epidemiological data reveals Delta is much more transmissible than previous mutations, and explains the bulk of new COVID cases in Europe and Asia. The highly infectious nature of the Delta variant means countries with low vaccination rates could experience a much more disruptive ‘third’ wave.