The August 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on crude oil, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.

Crude oil remains among the strongest performing assets this year, although uncertainty over the Delta COVID variant and rising OPEC+ supply has eroded confidence on further price gains. In particular, oil traders and most professional forecasters expect prices to edge down next year, a view that we do not share:

In this month’s report, we explore the factors driving oil market dynamics, and discuss the oil price outlook for the coming year. While the upside for oil is much more limited than in H1/21, the conservative market consensus opens up significant trading opportunities.

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