The December 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook report offers two-year price forecasts for all the key sectors (oil, industrial metals, gold) we cover on a regular basis. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
The November 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Stategist explores the ongoing ‘transitory’ versus ‘permanent’ inflation debate. We find strong evidence that professional forecasters and policymakers are underestimating US inflationary risks, and therefore the path of long-term yields in 2022.
The November 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook report focuses on crude oil, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
The October 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Stategist discusses the investment implications of a probable shift from reflation to overheating. We find strong evidence the economy could overheat in 2022, favouring value over growth and worsening the appeal of sovereign bonds as a macro hedge.
The October 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook report focuses on industrial metals, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook for copper and iron ore over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
The September 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Stategist (formerly Monitor) focuses on Fed policy, exploring the financial market implications of Fed tapering and the likelihood of a tightening cycle. We find that multiple rate hikes remains unlikely, continuing to support equity returns even as long-term yields pick up.
The September 2021 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on gold, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook over the coming year. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
The August 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor investigates the economic and financial market implications of the bi-partisan Infrastructure and Jobs Act (IIJA). We find that the IIJA could lift US GDP by around 0.5%, and improve the relative appeal of equities versus fixed income holdings.
The June 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor discusses US consumption prospects, exploring the likelihood of a normalization in expenditure patterns. We then evaluate the implications of potential budget shifts for sector rotation, focusing on the relative performance of tech stocks.
The May 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor explores the factors behind high US inflation, and discusses various strategies to minimize inflationary risk. While an inflationary spiral remains unlikely, we expect higher trend inflation than in the past 5Y, weakening the relative appeal of 60/40 portfolios.