The April 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro StategistĀ focuses on the US bond market outlook as the Fed reduces liquidity support. We evaluate the attractiveness of sovereign debt as a macro hedge, assess duration plays, and evaluate the relative appeal of inflation-linked vs. nominal bonds.
The March 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro Stategist focuses on the impact of rising oil prices and Fed tightening on the US economy and stock/bond portfolios. While both factors will dent growth prospects, we believe that fears of 1970s-type stagflation remain overstated, favouring risky assets.
The February 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro Stategist focuses on two key sources of risk to the US equity outlook: a lengthy Fed tightening cycle, and a speculative spike in oil prices. We explore the implications of both shocks on recession risk, and the probability of a ābearā market.
The January 2022 edition of ourĀ US Macro StategistĀ explores the factors behind the ongoing stock market sell-off, and the likelihood of a lengthy correction. Given low recession risk, investors should retain a high equity exposure, but rotate away from tech as rising yields compress valuations.