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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Emerging market progress stalls

July 9, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, July 9, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination campaigns stalled over the past week, increasing the projected time towards 70%+ immunity by 5.2% to 4 months. Importantly, all of the slowdown stemmed from emerging markets, where the vaccination rate stalled after two months of near-continuous improvements. In contrast, developed market maintained their daily pace of inoculations steady at 1.3 doses per hundred people, cutting back the projected timeline by 6.7% to two months.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Canada leads the way

July 2, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, July 2, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination campaigns accelerated further this past week, reducing the projected timeline towards 70%+ immunity by 5% to 3.4 months. Most of the improvement stemmed from DMs, led by impressive vaccination runs in the EZ and Canada. After a slow initial rollout, Canada now boasts the highest initial vaccine coverage across DMs. At the current pace of inoculation, Canada should surpass the 70% threshold in less than one month, faster than any other major economy.

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Global goods consumption growth easing into H2

July 2, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, July 2, 2021 (Press Release) –Numera today released the latest update of its Global Retail Sales Tracker, which points to global goods consumption growth easing into H2.

Numera’s advance estimates for global retail sales for May and June suggest spending on goods weakened from its reopening high in April. In a context of strong consumer confidence and high excess savings, the May drop primarily reflects substitution away from goods and towards previously unavailable services.

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Worldwide industrial activity normalizing into H2

June 30, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 30, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth normalizing into the second half.

Global industrial production should continue to benefit from unusually strong business investment, driven by low borrowing costs and further declines in economic uncertainty. Moreover, unlike manufacturing activity, falling public health risks should help boost mining activity and crude oil production.

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Growth in manufacturing output eased in H1

June 29, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 29, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Manufacturing Tracker, which reveals manufacturing output continued to expand into the second quarter.

Global manufacturing activity grew 3.5% annualized in H1, well above its long-term trend but not enough to satisfy booming demand for both consumer and investment goods. Capacity constraints have caused a run-up in global producer prices, up 14% annualized in April. Rising mobility should cause expenditure patterns to normalize over the next 12M, thereby reducing pressure on global supply chains

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Emerging markets catching up

June 25, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 25, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination rates continued to accelerate this past week, cutting back the estimated time towards 70%+ immunity by 12% to 3.8 months. With DMs now exceeding a 50% coverage on initial doses, much of the improvement stemmed from EMs – where a much lower coverage translates into higher initial take-up rates. At the current pace of inoculation, EMs should surpass the 70% immunity threshold in 4.3 months.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: Developed market progress continues

June 18, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 18, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Global vaccination campaigns accelerated further this past week, reducing the projected timeline towards 70%+ immunity by 5% to 4.7 months. Once again, much of this progress stemmed from developed markets, which are now inoculating a record 8M people per day. Developed markets have administered an initial dose to 46% of their populations, with consistent improvements in the initial take-up rate in most major economies excluding the United States.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: An impressive 6-month run

June 11, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 11, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

This week marked the 6-month anniversary since the official start of COVID vaccination campaigns. During this period, the world has administered a staggering 2.2 billion doses, with near-consistent improvements in the global pace of inoculation. At the current rate, the world should surpass the 70% immunity threshold in less than 5 months, versus a 14-month timeline merely two months ago.

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Numera’s Herd Immunity Tracker: A break-through month

June 4, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 4, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Herd Immunity Tracker. This report will be published weekly for the remainder of the year. Its purpose is to complement available information on COVID-19 vaccination rates with timely estimates on projected times remaining until 70%+ immunity for all major economies.

Since early May, improvements in vaccine distribution have significantly cut back projected times towards herd immunity. In only four weeks, daily inoculation rates have doubled to 0.6% of the global population, reducing the timeline towards 70%+ immunity by 5M.

Much of this progress stems from emerging markets, led by an extremely rapid rollout in China. In developed markets, accelerating vaccinations in Europe and Canada offset a weakening take-up rate in the US.

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Temporary slowdown in industrial activity

June 3, 2021 | Press

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL, QC, June 3, 2021 (Press Release) – Numera today released the latest update of its Global Industrial Tracker, which points to growth slowing into the second quarter.

After rising roughly 1% per month in Q1/21, global production rose an estimated 0.3% month-over-month in April – in line with its long-term trend. Looked at by region, most of the growth is now stemming from advanced economies, where improved business and consumer sentiment are boosting the production of investment and consumer goods.

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