Numera’s Chief Strategist Joaquin Kritz Lara sits down with Chris Cook to analyze the economic impact of the US presidential election.
We warn that markets may not be properly pricing inflation risks, given the proposed policy decisions of Harris or Trump, which are significant. In our recent US Strategist report we measure the impact of their respective policy mix on inflation, and what it means for the Fed easing cycle. The result is not what we expected.
As is usually the case during a ‘late cycle’, markets have become highly sensitive to US economic data releases. A weak jobs report in early August temporarily shook investor confidence by reigniting recession worries. Yet signs of resilient spending and Powell’s dovish speech at Jackson Hole helped tone down concerns of an imminent slowdown, again fueling risky assets.
As the Fed starts its easing cycle, should investors continue favoring riskier assets, or are markets underestimating risks to the economy? Join us for an online briefing on September 24th at 11AM EST, where our Managing Director and Chief Economist Joaquin Kritz Lara will discuss our latest views on the US economy, the Fed, and implications for multi-asset and absolute returns strategies.
The European corrugated box market experienced a tentative recovery in H2 2023, rising from the recent lows of H2 2022. What are the prospects for continued growth in what remains a challenging economic environment and how will containerboard exports fare in a context of excess capacity?
Join Tomas Marinozzi, Economist, Guadalupe Carracedo, Market Analyst, and Paul Leclair, Vice-President at Numera Analytics as they discuss these questions in our online briefing. As always, they will provide Numera’s outlook for the European economy, prospects for consumer spending and manufacturing, and explain how a strong job market and shipping disruptions will affect ECB policy.
Equity markets roared back to life in 2023, benefiting from low financial stress, a weaker USD, and bullish investor sentiment in response to both AI and ‘soft landing’ optimism. History shows that a late cycle environment is flush with volatility. Knowing this, we seek to answer a very important question: How should investors position their portfolios to maximize risk-adjusted returns in 2024?
Join us for an online briefing on January 31st at 11AM EST, where our Managing Director and Chief Economist Joaquin Kritz Lara will discuss the key macro themes that will guide global markets next year, and discuss implications for multi-asset and absolute returns strategies.
The May 2022 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Strategist focuses on the US dollar, up 5% this past month in response to rising global financial stress. We present our views on the dollar against all major currencies, and explore the impact of a rising USD on global financial markets..
The May 2022 edition of our Commodity Market Outlook focuses on industrial metals, covering recent market developments and our pricing outlook for copper and iron ore for 2022 and 2023. As usual, we also provide an update on our latest views on broad commodity markets.
The May 2022 edition of Numera Analytics’ Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, and our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation and exchange rates.
The April 2022 edition of our US Macro Stategist focuses on the US bond market outlook as the Fed reduces liquidity support. We evaluate the attractiveness of sovereign debt as a macro hedge, assess duration plays, and evaluate the relative appeal of inflation-linked vs. nominal bonds.
The April 2022 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Strategist focuses on China, discussing the growth implications of Beijing’s Zero-COVID policy and increased fiscal and monetary support. In addition, we investigate whether Chinese stocks are gaining appeal after declining nearly 50% this past year.